Severe Weather Outlook for Thursday Night

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
535 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE.  THE MAIN THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.  THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.AREAS AFFECTED
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MARTIN TO COLLIERVILLE.

.DISCUSSION
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRAGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE THREAT AND IMPACT AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY EVENING.  STAY ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS.

SPC/NWS/WTWO

Weather with the Feel of Fall

(Sunday, Sep. 27, 2009) – Image on the right showing a majority of the U.S. with few clouds east of the Appalachians.  Our big-time rainmaker is now over the east coast.  Following the AM fog, today should be warm with a good deal of sunshine and highs in the 80s.

Note the cold front over the Dakotas.  It will be diving SE into our area before sunrise Monday.  It will mark a change to more fall-like temperatures.  It won’t have enough moisture to work with to cause rain, but in its wake we will notice significantly cooler temperatures.  The first half of the work-week, which sees an end to September, highs will be in the 70s and night time lows in the 40s. Typically at the end of September we experience highs in the low-80s and lows in the mid-50s.

Holmes

Two-Week Rain Totals

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2009

…TWO WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS WEST TN…

IN A TYPICAL TWO-WEEK PERIOD IN SEPTEMBER IN WEST TENNESSEE, ONE WOULD EXPECT MAYBE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. SEPTEMBER 2009 HAS BEEN FAR FROM TYPICAL. BELOW IS A TALLY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND JACKSON, MADISON COUNTY AND WEST TENNESSEE:

** AROUND JACKSON/MADISON COUNTY

N. JACKSON 5.94″

W. JACKSON 5.27″

S. JACKSON/BEMIS 7.99″

SE JACKSON 7.93″

MKL AIRPORT 4.79″

** AROUND WEST TENNESSEE

SELMER 13.36″

SAVANNAH 6 SW 8.29″

UNION CITY 4.59″

MILAN 4.48″

PARIS 2.32″

REH

Week’s Outlook; Some Rainfall Numbers

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

720 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

…THREE TO FOUR INCH RAINS OVER THE LAST WEEK IN MADISON COUNTY…

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A LOT OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION (CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS) HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIALLY MORE RAINFALL AND ACCOMPANYING FLOODING AND OUR NEIGHBORS AROUND MEMPHIS HAVE ALSO COLLECTED MORE RAINFALL (CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS) , AMOUNTS HERE IN THE JACKSON-MADISON COUNTY AREA HAVE GONE OVER FOUR INCHES IN THE LAST WEEK.

BELOW IS A TALLY OF SOME OF THE AMOUNTS SINCE SEPTEMBER 12TH FROM MADISON COUNTY COCORAHS OBSERVERS FROM REPRESENTATIVE LOCATIONS AROUND THE COUNTY:

N. JACKSON – 3.31″

W. JACKSON – 2.91″

NE JACKSON – 3.14″

SE MADISON CO. – 4.46″

REVISED TOTALS WILL BE POSTED LATER TODAY.

EH

A Cool Weather Outlook After the Rainy Period

(Wednesday, September 16, 2009) – This time of the year I like to keep an eye on the model trends to watch for a cool/cold air outbreak.  One thing to keep in mind is how much the models are agreeing with each other and whether they are agreeing with each other on a consistent basis.  

The two charts above are the two long range models (the European on the left and the US – GFS – model on the right).  They are coming into agreement that a trough will be setting up that will lend itself to a cool weather trend.  This is for the period of Wednesday through Friday of NEXT week.

Rain, Heavy at Times This Week

(Sunday, September 13, 2009) – Tropical moisture will slowly spread into West TN

5 Day Rainfall Projection

going into the next week.  This will be due to the approach of an upper low over TX and a surface low along the Gulf coast.  Current projections are for rainfall amounts over the next 5 days to be between 2 and 3 inches.  This will be subject to revision, but area residents need to be ready for episodes of rain that will be heavy at times generally between Monday and Thursday.

Your Weekend Weather Forecast

(Friday, September 11, 2009) – ///We pause and remember the families and friends of those who perished on the Day America was Attacked in 2001.  We remember our nation. ///

An upper low over the Mid-Atlantic states and low pressure over the upper Texas coast.  As we go into the weekend, the upper low will ease off to the east and the moisture associated with the low to our southwest will slowly be working its way into our direction.  My thinking is that most folks will get through the weekend dry, however there will be a remote chance (20%) for an afternoon shower/thunderstorm Saturday.  On Sunday, a little more moisture  from the southwest will increase cloudiness and rain chances (to 30%).

Weekend temperatures will top out during the daytime in the middle 80s with nighttime lows in the middle 60s for the most part.

Have a happy, safe weekend.

Following Fred

7th Tropical Depression Forms in Far E. Atlantic

AT 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 24.5 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES…255 KM…SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY.  NHC

Heavy Rains Drench Portions of Madison County Sunday

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
755 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2009

…HEAVY RAINS DRENCH PORTIONS OF MADISON COUNTY…

IT WAS LIKELY THE MOST RAINFALL SEEN IN MANY PARTS OF THE JACKSON-MADISON COUNTY AREA IN ABOUT A MONTH.  THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SLOWLY MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE COUNTY DUMPED TORRENTIAL RAIN IN NORTHERN PARTS OF MADISON COUNTY.  AT THE NORTH JACKSON CLIMATE STATION NEAR NORTH PARK, HOME OF
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE, 1.77″ OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES, BETWEEN 600 PM AND 640 PM CDT.  BASED ON THE MAP PROVIDED, WHICH INCLUDES THE REPORTS FROM COCORAHS OBSERVERS, THE HEAVIEST TOTAL AMOUNTS WERE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS.  HOWEVER, MOST AREAS RECEIVED THIS AMOUNTS IN LESS THAN
ONE HOUR.

EH