(Thursday, May 21, 2009) – At mid-afternoon, everybody is in the 80s in West TN and wall-to-wall sunshine dotted with occasional fair weather cumulus clouds. Absolutely fine weather!
All of this is courtesy of high pressure centered southeast of New England, over the Atlantic and ridging back into the Southern Plains. This influence will hold through the evening.
Our next weather-maker is an upper low over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is nicely depicted on the visible satellite images. Regional radar and surface reports showing that showers pushing NW into the lower TN Valley.
Models are in agreement that clouds will increase later tonight and showers will be in Friday’s forecast–even isolated activity could be noted by daybreak Friday. Models are suggesting that we should see high rain chances in peak heating times of the day with a reduction in coverage during the over night hours.
So the moisture field will be overspreading the area as we go into the weekend, however the surface reflection of this upper low is not expected to come ashore until Saturday evening near the Big Easy/New Orleans. My thinking is that we’ll see a 30-40% probability of showers Friday, Friday Night and Saturday. Then ramp up the rain chances Saturday Night as the low pressure comes north into Arkansas.
It is worth noting that with the surface low forecast to move just to our west, it opens the tropical moisture door. HPC is predicting 5-day rainfall totals 3″+ for West Tennessee at this time.

5-Day Rainfall Prediction
We may become locked into a tropical air mass, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that could unload torrential downpours on some spots.