Severe Weather Outlook for Friday
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
550 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…
.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT…WHERE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40…THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS LOWER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS
THESE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.AREAS AFFECTED
A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR OF WEST TENNESSEE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
.DISCUSSION
Forecast frontal position for 7 AM Saturday
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS THE GULF STATES. A LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF STATES FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ROTATION POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT LEAST. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES AT THIS TIME, BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOTING THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD CONTAMINATE THE INSTIBILITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AS IT PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD LIMIT *SOMEWHAT* THE SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE, THE IMPACT WILL ALSO BECOME CLEARER AND WE MAY SEE AN UPGRADE OF THE CATEGORICAL RISK FROM THE CURRENT *SLIGHT* LEVEL.
NWS/SPC/EH
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