NWS forecast of critical low pressure that brings prospects for severe weather to the deep south. It's track generally south of West TN will mean the greatest risk remains south of W. TN.
This is the current expected track of the main storm system Friday night. This track keeps the unstable "warm sector" to our south. Any change in the projected track further north would mean a higher tornadic threat. Check back!
NWS graphic prepared Thursday morning.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
550 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2009
…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT…
.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
IN AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES…LARGE HAIL…AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT…WHERE A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40…THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
APPEARS LOWER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS
THESE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
.AREAS AFFECTED
A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR OF WEST TENNESSEE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
.DISCUSSION
Forecast frontal position for 7 AM Saturday
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS PASSED TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY ACROSS THE GULF STATES. A LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GULF STATES FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT DUE TO ROTATION POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR AT LEAST. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES AT THIS TIME, BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOTING THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD CONTAMINATE THE INSTIBILITY OF THE WARM SECTOR AS IT PRODUCES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS COULD LIMIT *SOMEWHAT* THE SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE, THE IMPACT WILL ALSO BECOME CLEARER AND WE MAY SEE AN UPGRADE OF THE CATEGORICAL RISK FROM THE CURRENT *SLIGHT* LEVEL.
NWS/SPC/EH
www.jacksonweather.net
Clearing line moving into W TN just before sunrise will lead the way to a mostly sunny day and highs today in the 70s.
OBION RIVER BASIN…
BOGOTA 0.58 OBION 1.29
PALMERSVILLE 1.25 MARTIN 1.39 DRESDEN 1.47
MENGELWOOD 1.04 GREENFIELD 1.39 MCKENZIE 1.80
UNION CITY 1.58 MILAN UT 1.74 MILAN 1.50
FORKED DEER RIVER BASIN…
DYERSBURG AP 1.24 TATUMVILLE 0.78
HALLS 0.76 EATON 0.96
BELLS 1.61 JACKSON 1.49 OAKFIELD 0.34
JACKSON AP 1.60 JACKSON THREE WAY1.56
HENDERSON 1.75
HATCHIE RIVER BASIN…
RIALTO 1.09 BOLIVAR 0.34
COVINGTON 1.70 BOLIVAR COOP 1.95
LOOSAHATCHIE RIVER BASIN…
MILLINGTON 1.87
WOLF RIVER BASIN…
GERMANTOWN 2.35 LAGRANGE 2.36
NWS MEMPHIS 2.22 COLLIERVILLE 2.60
AMES PLANTATION 2.22
NONCONNAH CREEK BASIN…
MEMPHIS AP 2.25 GERMANTOWN 3S 2.55
SHELBY COUNTY…
MEMPHIS RIVER 1.89 NWS MEMPHIS 2.22 GERMANTOWN 2.35
MEMPHIS AP 2.25 GERMANTOWN 3S 2.55
MILLINGTON 1.87 COLLIERVILLE 2.60
BIG SANDY/BEECH RIVER BASINS…
BRUCETON 0.96 LEXINGTON TVA 0.57
TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN…
NEW JOHNSONVILLE 0.53
CLIFTON 0.24
PICKWICK DAM 0.26
PARIS 2.07
Courtesy of the CoCoRaHS Network of Observers:
24 Hour Rainfall Amounts through 7 AM Wednesday
Radar estimates showing amounts ranging from around 1 inch (green) to around 2 inches (yellow & tan)
The next several days of rains could accumulate to 3 to 4 inches.
There is a slight risk of severe weather for Midsouth Friday and Friday Night. There is a potential for an upgrade to a moderate risk in later updates. A significant severe weather outbreak is possible somewhere in this area that is outlined.
Cold front to our NW will slowly push into our area and become stationary just to our S.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
515 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009
…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT…
.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER EXTREME WESTERN WEST TENNESSEE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE, THERE WILL BE A FEW AREAS THAT COULD SEE UPTO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL..
.AREAS AFFECTED
A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TO BROWNSVILLE TO SOMERVILLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES.
.DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WEST TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST TENNESSEE AREA AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND CONTINUED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.
NWS/SPC/EH
www.jacksonweather.net
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
825 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT…
.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND OF 60 MPH. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.
.AREAS AFFECTED
A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TO SOMERVILLE.
.DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WEST TENNESSEE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WEST TENNESSEE AREA AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WHICH TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
NWS/SPC/EH
www.jacksonweather.net
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