Latest Ideas on Snowfall for Monday

(Thursday,  January 29, 2009) – Below is what could be a significant accumulation of snowfall that would materialize on Monday between 6 AM and Noon.  Will be fun to watch how this changes in the days ahead!

Snowfall Potential Valid by Noon Monday

Thoughts on Early Next Week Winter Weather Threat

(Thursday, January 29, 2009) – This discussion is centered on Jackson.  Timing and amounts will vary over W. TN.

Weather computer models continue (consistently) to advertize a potential for a significant snowfall to start next week.  Based on the latest information:

 

We have rain move into our area Sunday night ahead of a cold front.  The cold front passes and rain is expected to change to snow.  A low pressure over the deep south will keep moisture involved even after the front passes.  By daybreak on Monday, we could be seeing a rain/snow mix changing to all snow by mid-morning.  One to three inches of snow would be possible by noon time on Monday.  Monday night’s lows will be in the low to mid-20s.

More Fun and Games Early Next Week

(Thursday, January 29, 2009) – The NWS is already beginning to gently alert Midsoutherners about the potential for accumulating precipitation next week.  From the Hazardous Weather Outlook the NWS states: 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH AND
FORECAST AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

In the previous post, I presented ONE model’s idea on how sees the accumulation potential.  Twelve hours later here is how the idea has changed:

GFS Model Precipitation Valid 6 AM Monday

I have used a rule of thumb method to identify the snowfall amounts.  It only applies to areas to the left of the dashed line which is the rain-snow line. Please keep in mind this will be changing every 6 to 12 hours and that is one of the reasons the NWS says there is much uncertainty associated with the forecast.  It is enough to cause us to keep an eye on how this might turn out.  So stay tuned.