Current Thoughts on Icy Weather Threat

(Sun. Jan. 25 2009) – Winter Storm Watch Monday Night into Tuesday Afternoon for Lake and Obion Counties.  This NWS configuration looks good based on the latest model data. 

A low pressure and warm front will be approaching the West Tennessee area as Monday progresses.  Precipitation is expected to move into the area soon after dark. Temperatures at the onset of precipitation should be in mid to upper 30s. Mid-30s may be common in the Lake/Obion Counties area.  However once the precipitation in the watch area begins, temperatures are expected to fall to freezing and hang out there all night. Model data suggest that temps could inch upward abit in the Jackson area overnight Monday night.  So at this point precipitation Monday night should be rain.

Tuesday – Low pressure is forecast to be SW of Memphis with a warm front along I-40.  It appears temperatures may warm into the mid-30s in the watch area, based on the latest projections…while in Jackson…temperatures in the mid-and upper 40s will be possible.  Thus, we’re seeing the possibility that the freezing rain could be minimal on Tuesday.

Tuesday Night – By 6 PM Tuesday, the low is NE of Nashville with a cold front southwest through Tupelo. Temperatures will be falling in the afternoon Tuesday after cold frontal passage and by nightfall should be in the 30s.  Temperatures in Jackson will drop to near freezing by 9 PM.  Models are suggesting increased precipitation with the cold frontal passage and for a time behind the front. Then most of the precipitation should be ending after midnight.  Late Tuesday evening may introduce another potential for wintery precipitation that could be a transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow before ending. 

This entire scenario will be fine tuned as we get closer to the event itself.  However, at this juncture, given the track of the low pressure generally along I-40, the threat for icy weather should be low.  Any change in the projected track of the low pressure will impact the affected areas. Additional posts will be made as needed.              
 
EH
www.jacksonweather.net

Icing Probability of > 1/4 Inch

Icing Probability of Receiving > 1/4" or More

In the upcoming threat for icing, the graphic above shows the Hydrological Prediction Center’s projection of probibility of any one area receiving a 1/4 inch of ice or more.

Winter Storm Watch Posted for Extreme NW TN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
530 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

 
…WINTER STORM WATCH POSTED FOR LAKE AND OBION COUNTIES…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS POSTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TWO COUNTIES IN WEST TENNESSEE. THE WATCH WHICH IS EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS FOR LAKE AND OBION COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL ENTER THE WEST TENNESSEE AREA.  COLD AIR ALREADY OVER THE REGION BY THAT TIME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO POSE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OVER SEVERAL AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, IN THE WARNING AREA, SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WHEN THE PRECIPITATION OCCURS ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 

PERSONS SHOULD CONTINUE STAY ABREAST ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

EH/NWS