Thoughts on Next Weeks Bitter Blast

(Thu. Jan 8, 2009) – Well with next week’s extreme pattern shaping up, I felt like I’d share some thoughts about it. In the previous post it was obvious that the extreme pattern was being advertised by the computer models. As those of us who make it our business to daily review the weather models it will take a few more days for them to settle down on extent, intensity and timing of the cold outbreak. As an example, the graphic in the previous post showed daytime highs only around 20º in Jackson on Tuesday. Today, the same model is printing out around 42º for a high. This is not so much a reflection of change in intensity as it is a delay in the arrival of the cold. The same model is showing a high of near 20º on Thursday.

It appears many of the other models are either leading the pack (of models) or jumping on that proverbial bandwagon that the extreme will make it in here by Thursday of next week. Where is this exteme cold currently? Go here and read about it!  Tuesday will not be the big kahuna, but it will have it’s punch. Old man winter’s breath will blow in on Tuesday and I’m not convinced we’ll see highs in the low 40s. The timing of this punch of cold air will decide. Flurries could fly with this air’s arrival. The big kahuna will arrive on Wednesday temperatures at sunrise near 40 but falling into the 20s by afternoon. The low Thursday morning could be around 18º. Incredibly the noontime temperature Thursday will be around 20º and by sunset it will be 16º in Jackson. Single digit lows would be expected next Friday morning. So went the record files and found the last time Jackson had temperatures this cold was a high of 21º two days before Christmas (12/23) 2004.

This is an extreme pattern coming in and as is usual, wind chills will likely be a factor as this air arrives. During all this cold weather transition it appears winter precipitation will be minimal with only flurries associated with the clipper systems that will lead the cold air into the region.

It is worth noting that some of the models are trying to get some fun and games started in the lower Mississippi Valley beginning Thursday.
EH
www.jacksonweather.net