Welcomed Weekend Warm-up!

(Fri. Jan. 30 2009) – Weather will settle down for the weekend.  The prospects for some sunshine and warmer temperatures are looking good. 

Sfc Map Valid 6 PM Saturday

By the middle of the weekend, high pressure will be centered over FL and an approaching cold front will be to our NW.  A southwesterly flow will push temperatures into the 50s for us over the weekend and that will feel good. 

Moisture returns ahead of the cold front leading to some rain chances Sunday night.  The cold front leads the march of colder air and will result in rain Sunday evening becoming mixed with snow after midnight.  How much moisture and the how cold the temperatures will be able to get remains a question as to the prospects of accumulation on Monday.  We’ll keep the posts going for the upcoming weekend.  Have a happy and safe weekend!               
 
EH
www.jacksonweather.net

Latest Ideas on Snowfall for Monday

(Thursday,  January 29, 2009) – Below is what could be a significant accumulation of snowfall that would materialize on Monday between 6 AM and Noon.  Will be fun to watch how this changes in the days ahead!

Snowfall Potential Valid by Noon Monday

Thoughts on Early Next Week Winter Weather Threat

(Thursday, January 29, 2009) – This discussion is centered on Jackson.  Timing and amounts will vary over W. TN.

Weather computer models continue (consistently) to advertize a potential for a significant snowfall to start next week.  Based on the latest information:

 

We have rain move into our area Sunday night ahead of a cold front.  The cold front passes and rain is expected to change to snow.  A low pressure over the deep south will keep moisture involved even after the front passes.  By daybreak on Monday, we could be seeing a rain/snow mix changing to all snow by mid-morning.  One to three inches of snow would be possible by noon time on Monday.  Monday night’s lows will be in the low to mid-20s.

More Fun and Games Early Next Week

(Thursday, January 29, 2009) – The NWS is already beginning to gently alert Midsoutherners about the potential for accumulating precipitation next week.  From the Hazardous Weather Outlook the NWS states: 

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WITH ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH AND
FORECAST AREA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. ALL
INTERESTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.

In the previous post, I presented ONE model’s idea on how sees the accumulation potential.  Twelve hours later here is how the idea has changed:

GFS Model Precipitation Valid 6 AM Monday

I have used a rule of thumb method to identify the snowfall amounts.  It only applies to areas to the left of the dashed line which is the rain-snow line. Please keep in mind this will be changing every 6 to 12 hours and that is one of the reasons the NWS says there is much uncertainty associated with the forecast.  It is enough to cause us to keep an eye on how this might turn out.  So stay tuned.

Talk Already Beginning About Next Week

(Wednesday, January 28, 2009) – Talk has already started about winter weather next week.  Below is a scenario presented by the U.S. model GFS.  Low pressure near the Gulf of Mexico at sunrise Monday, coupled with upper level dynamics produces a significant snow for areas of West TN to the left of the dotted line.  This winter storm situation does NOT include the prospects for ICE.  We’ll see how this evolves over the next few days:

GFS Model Valid 6 AM Monday, February 2, 2009

Ice and Snow Reports from Around West TN

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 PM CST WED JAN 28 2009

…WINTER WEATHER REPORTS FROM THE MID SOUTH REGION…
OBSERVATIONS FROM JANUARY 26 THROUGH JANUARY 28

…ICE REPORTS…

UNION CITY TN     /OBION/       1.00 INCH
TIPTONVILLE TN    /LAKE/        1.00 INCH
MARTIN TN         /WEAKLEY/     0.75 INCHES
DYERSBURG TN      /DYER/        0.50 INCHES
COVINGTON TN      /TIPTON/      0.50 INCHES
PARIS TN          /HENRY/       0.25 INCHES
ALAMO TN          /CROCKETT/    0.25 INCHES

…SNOW REPORTS…
BROWNSVILLE TN    /HAYWOOD/     2.0 INCHES
ALAMO TN          /CROCKETT/    2.0 INCHES
TURRELL AR        /CRITTENDEN/  1.5 INCHES
MARTIN TN         /WEAKLEY/     1.0 INCH
FINGER TN         /MCNAIRY/     1.0 INCH
DYERSBURG TN      /DYER/        1.0 INCH
JACKSON TN        /MADISON/     1.0 INCH
CORDOVA TN        /SHELBY/      0.8 INCHES
NWS MEMPHIS TN    /SHELBY/      0.7 INCHES
SELMER TN         /MCNAIRY/     0.5 INCHES

Icy Weather Generates Record Number of Blog Views

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
1250 PM CST WED JAN 28 2009

…ICY WEATHER THREAT GENERATES RECORD NUMBER OF VIEWS FOR BLOG…

THE JACKSON-WEST TENN BLOG SITE HAD AN ALL TIME RECORD NUMBER OF VIEWS.  THE RECORD IS KEPT FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD RUNNING FROM 6 PM TO 6 PM.  THE BLOG RECORDED A TOTAL OF 1,079 VIEWS.  IT HAS BEEN A RECORD MONTH AS WELL.  THROUGH ABOUT 12:45 PM A TOTAL OF 5,263 VIEWS. THE JACKSON-WEST TENN BLOG HAS BEEN OPERATING SINCE SEPTEMBER 2006. 

EH / www.jacksonweather.net

First Measurable Snow!

A couple of neighborhood images from our offical 0.8″ of snow in North Jackson! There was little sleet. We did have 2.30 inches of rain to precede it! We fair very well compared to our not-too-distant neighbors.

0.8″ of snow on Wed Jan 28, 2009

Neighborhood view of Jan 28th Snow

Winter Weather Advisory Details

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
525 PM CST WED JAN 28 2009

 
…SUMMARY OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…

FOR TIPTON-HAYWOOD-MADISON-SHELBY-FAYETTE COUNTIES: 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT COUNTIES:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN SLEET AND SNOW…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. THE ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN ONE INCH WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. TRAVEL IS STILL
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
PAST DAY. TREES AND POWER LINES ARE ICE COVERED…WHICH HAS LEAD TO LOSS OF POWER ACROSS THE AREA. BRIDGES…OVERPASSES…AND ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND MAY BE IMPASSABLE.

 
FOR CHESTER-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN COUNTIES:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW…WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE ENDING BY NOON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH…AND SNOW AND SLEET LESS THAN ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES… OVERPASSES…AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES.

FOR HENDERSON AND DECATUR COUNTIES:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN….SLEET…AND SNOW…WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN…SLEET…AND SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY 9 AM. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH AND SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BRIDGES…OVERPASSES…AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES.

NWS/www.jacksonweather.net

Ice Storm Warning Cancelled; Advisories Now in Effect

(Wednesday, January 28, 2009) – All of West TN is now under a Winter Weather Advisory.  Specific county details are available here.