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Meso Discussion from SPC on Freezing Rain & Sleet

Meso Discussion from SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008
  
   AREAS AFFECTED…ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY
  
   CONCERNING…WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
  
   VALID 160013Z – 160415Z
  
   SHOWERS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET SHOULD CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY
   SHIFT SEWD…PERHAPS INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING. LIQUID EQUIVALENT
   RATES SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.15/3-HR PERIOD.
  
   REPEATED TRAINING OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE
   OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6-8 HOURS FROM SERN OK INTO WRN
   KY…PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP AN
   ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT /ANALYZED FROM SRN LA TO
   ERN TN AT 00Z/ EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SWD WITH CONTINUED CAA N OF
   THE BOUNDARY…AXIS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONCURRENTLY SHIFT
   SWD THIS EVENING. BOTH MORNING AND AFTERNOON NAM/GFS/RUC/SREF
   GUIDANCE HAVE PERFORMED POORLY WITH RESPECT TO QPF PLACEMENT/TIMING
   TODAY. HOWEVER…THEY ARE CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTHING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   THIS EVENING…WHICH WOULD INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PERHAPS LEAD
   TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES AMONGST WEAK INSTABILITY /AS SAMPLED
   BY 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS/. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO INDICATED IN 15/00Z
   4-KM WRF-NSSL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY…WHICH APPEARED TO HAVE A MORE
   REALISTIC REPRESENTATION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION….WITH THE
   SUGGESTION OF A GRADUAL SEWD MOVEMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF THE BAND OF
   SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z.
  
   ..GRAMS.. 12/16/2008

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT – Update

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
608 PM CST MON DEC 15 2008

 

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CARROLL-DYER-
GIBSON-HENRY-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY.

ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST TUESDAY FOR CHESTER-CROCKETT-
DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-LAUDERDALE-
MADISON-SHELBY-TIPTON.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR HARDIN-MCNAIRY.
SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM, DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY, EXTREME NORTHWEST TENNESSEE, THE

MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE

PRECIPITATION GENERALLY FROM MARTIN TO NEWBERN TO DYERSBURG TO BLYTHEVILLE, AR. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF HIGHER

REFLECTIVITY WHICH SUGGESTS SLEET. REPORTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT LATE AFTERNOON HAVE INCLUDED 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET IN

SOME AREAS. ROADWAYS ARE BECOMING ICE COVERED IN DUNKLIN COUNTY MISSOURI AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE INTO THE MEMPHIS AREA. ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST TENNESSEE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND FREEZING.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIPITAION AREA VERY WELL AS THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THAT WHAT IS OCCURING CURRENTLY WAS

EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS

LIKELY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES FROM MESONET STATIONS ARE RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE AREA APPEARS TO BUILDING VERY

SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEARING THE JACKSON AREA TOWARD 9 PM OR SO.

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE BY AROUND 10 PM.

HOLMES/NWS

WINTER STORM AND ICE STORM WARNINGS – SUMMARY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
536 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

 

…SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING…

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH TODAY. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BY NOON…THEN INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI BY MID-AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL FREEZING
RAIN…MOSTLY LIGHT…WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY…RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER…THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THE FREEZING RAIN INCREASES. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

…SUMMARY OF WARNINGS AROUND WEST TENNESSEE…

…ICE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR: CROCKETT…SHELBY…FAYETTE…HAYWOOD…TIPTON…CHESTER…DECATUR…HARDEMAN…HENDERSON…MADISON…AND BENTON COUNTIES…

…ICE STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM TODAY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR LAUDERDALE COUNTY…

MOSTLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON…BUT THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

THE ICE STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY TUESDAY
IN LATER FORECASTS.
…WINTER STORM WARNING WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR DYER-LAKE-OBION.

…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
FOR CARROLL-GIBSON-HENRY-WEAKLEY.
MOSTLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR TODAY…BUT THE FREEZING
RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
SLEET.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MORE SIGNIFICANT
AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION…BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE DAY
TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT
ADD TO THE DANGER.

WTWO/NWS