Updated Temperature Fall Projection

(Sunday, December 14, 2008) – Below is my projection of the temperature falls across West Tennessee between 6 AM and 6 PM Sunday:

Region                                       6A           9A       Noon         3P           6P

Union City – Dyersburg       46              39        33              31          29

Paris – Jackson                       49              42        37              33          31

Henderson-Selmer               51              43         39              35         33

 

Holmes/4:01PM CST

Freezing Rain Advisories Posted

From the NWS:

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR

CROCKETT-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR

CARROLL-MADISON-SHELBY.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR

DYER-LAUDERDALE-OBION.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR

LAKE.

Winter Storm Warning Issued for Western KY

From NWS Paducah, KY:

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR

BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-

DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-

LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION

KY-WEBSTER.

Dramatic Temperature Drop Behind Arctic Front

(Sunday, December 14, 2008) – How quickly do temperatures drop behind the arctic front that will arrive in West TN early Monday morning?  Check out temperature differences from 8 AM this morning in the Plains:

Projected Temperature Falls Monday

(Sunday, December 14, 2008) – With the expected rapidly dropping temperatures expected on Monday along with the threat of icing, here is a preliminary projection of how temperatures will drop on Monday.  I will revise this periodically as new information becomes available:

            Union City – Dyersburg      Paris – Jackson      Henderson-Selmer

6 AM                  43º                                         50º                                   52º

9 AM                  37º                                         48º                                   49º

Noon                  32º                                         47º                                   48º

3 PM                   29º                                         40º                                   41º

6 PM                   27º                                         35º                                   36º

9 PM                   27º                                         32º                                   33º

 

Again this is a preliminary projection for guidance purposes only and will be updated in later posts.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT: Icy Weather Threat Monday through Early Tuesday

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
558 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

 

…ICY WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING…

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, PASSING THROUGH THE JACKSON AREA AROUND LUNCH TIME AND EXITING WEST TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROM THE 50S AT SUNRISE MONDAY TO AROUND FREEZING BY NIGHTFALL. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RIDE UP-AND-OVER THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN THE MOISTURE THAT FALLS OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE RAIN AND THEN STRIKE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD BE BELOW FREEZING IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENT PROJECTIONS FROM WEATHER COMPUTER MODELS VARY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WILL FALL. THIS WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION. BETWEEN 6 PM MONDAY AND 6 AM TUESDAY, MODELS ARE PROJECTING BETWEEN 0.45″ AND 0.79″ AROUND JACKSON.

THE CRITICAL TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN CREATE HEAVY LOADS ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES…POSSIBLY CAUSING THEM TO FALL. IN ADDITION…VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.

IF ROAD ICING DOES OCCUR…PLEASE REMEMBER TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

DETAILS CONCERNING THE EXACT TIMING…LOCATION…AND AMOUNTS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. CHECK BACK FOR LATER FORECASTS, STATEMENTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

WTWO/NWS

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
545 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

 

…WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING…

.TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH AROUND 60. WIND SOUTH 20-30 MPH AND GUSTY.

.TONIGHT…CONTINUED BREEZY AND CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.  LOW NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.

.MONDAY…COLDER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE NIGHTFALL. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. TEMERATURES FALLING TO THE LOW 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT…FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LOW NEAR 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY…FREEZING RAIN LIKELY DURING THE MORNING, CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 37. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY NIGHT…A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

.WEDNESDAY…A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH 44.