SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT: Freezing Rain Threat Monday/Monday Night

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
1030 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008

 

…POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT…

WEATHER COMPUTER MODELS ARE COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING FROM THE 50S AT SUNRISE MONDAY INTO THE 30S BY THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RIDE UP-AND-OVER THE COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN THE MOISTURE THAT FALLS OUT OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE RAIN AND THEN STRIKE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD BE BELOW FREEZING IN SEVERAL AREAS.

COMPARING THE COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST DATA REVEALS THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM TUESDAY PRECIPITATION COULD RANGE BETWEEN 0.10″ TO 0.50″ DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT ICING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE COMPUTER WEATHER MODELS.

THE CRITICAL TIME FOR TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AREA RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING SOONER THAN EXPECTED ON MONDAY, IT COULD IMPACT THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE.

CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR LATER POSTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

HOLMES

Wet Now; Ice Later(?)

(Saturday, December 13, 2008) – An increasingly wet forecast turns into a threat

of a little ice early next week.  Today has been characterized by a mostly

cloudy day with highs in the 40s. High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast and

intensifying storm system over the Plains is joining forces to increase moisture

over our region and will increase wind speeds tonight and Sunday. 

(Tonight Through Sunday Night)

Mostly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures not budging much on the

increasing wind speeds.  Temperatures should remain in the 40s and winds will be

increasing to between 15 and 25 mph with higher gusts. A spotty shower is

possible, with the rain chances at 1 in 5 for any one location in West TN for

tonight and Sunday.  Sunday, temperatures should be pushed to near 60 degrees.

Sunday night showers will become likely by late-night as an arctic cold front

sweeps into the area.

(Monday Through Tuesday)

This is the problematic period insofar as precipitation type is concerned.  It

appears that precipitation amounts will be light (less than 0.10″) in most

locales.  What temperatures do will be the trick in the forecast.  The U.S.

model guidance differs by 10º as to the temperature at sunrise Tuesday (29º vs

39º).  I’m leaning toward the cooler model and this is consitent with earlier

NWS thinking.  Putting the minimum Monday night at 32º.  I’m mentioning wording

of light rain or light freezing rain.  For the first couple of hours of Tuesday

morning, temperatures will be around freezing so that exposed objects will

likely get a bit of a coating of ice.  Would think at this point given the

ground temperatures and light nature of precipitation that any travel concerns

would be bridges and overpasses.  Temperatures are expected to warm above

freezing by mid-morning. 

This will be one of those evolving forecasts.  So check back regularly.

Below is my forecast:
JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
245 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2008

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 44.  WIND SOUTHEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  HIGH AROUND 60. WIND SOUTH 20-30 MPH AND GUSTY.

.SUNDAY NIGHT…CONTINUED BREEZY AND CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.  LOW NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT.

.MONDAY…COLDER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE MORNING, TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT…MUCH COLDER. CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN. LOW NEAR 32.

.TUESDAY…A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY, BECOMING MAINLY RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH 39.