WTWO Special Weather Statement – Light Snow Overnight

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
655 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

…WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE…

VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUED TO PEPPER DOWN ACROSS THE WEST TENNESSEE AREA.TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST.
SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED LIGHT SNOW FALLING NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ST. LOUIS TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI TO FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE OUR LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. CONSIDERING GROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW, MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES, AUTOMOBILES, ETC. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE WHICH WILL BE IN THE COLD AIR THE LONGEST MAY GET UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY SURFACES BY DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY GET TO FREEZING BUT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID-30S.

CHECK BACK IN WITH www.jacksonweather.net FOR LATER POSTS AS NEEDED.

HOLMES

WTWO – Special Weather Statement on Wintry Precipitation

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
835 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

 

…WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT IN MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE…

WEST TENNESSEE’S FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH, OVER THE MIDWEST, SLINGS COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION.

THIS MORNING, DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR IS SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WEST TENNESSEE, MAINLY BETWEEN JACKSON AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT WE ARE EXPECTING IN OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ROTATING AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. SURFACE REPORTS JUST BEFORE 8:15 AM CST HAD LIGHT SNOW INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS AREA. THIS AREA IS PRESSING SOUTHEAST.

LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE CRITICAL TEMPERATURES FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF WEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIQUID. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN, SO THAT BY NIGHTFALL MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCING A RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY COOL TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING, THEREFORE NO TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT, AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW. CONSIDERING GROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW, MOST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES, AUTOMOBILES, ETC. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE WHICH WILL BE IN THE COLD AIR THE LONGEST MAY GET UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY GET TO FREEZING BUT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE MID-30S.

CHECK BACK IN WITH www.jacksonweather.net FOR LATER POSTS AS NEEDED.

HOLMES

Friday Holds the 20,000th View!

A warm thanks to all who stop by this blog from time to time.  We reached the milestone of 20,000+ views!!! This is my 516th post.  Still a newbie by all these numbers!!!

Gonna Predict Light Accumulation

(Friday,  November 28, 2008) – Well I’ve spent the last couple of hours looking at old and new data;  looking at forecast soundings and working through thicknesses, etc.  So I’m going to make a call and live and die by it.  I’ll use a self-contrived “Confidence Scale” of 0 to 4 with 4 being the highest confidence.  I’m going with a 2.5 to 3.0.  Now, that is just my confidence level in my forecast as I put it together.  I could still end up wrong. 

I think, finally, the GFS has a good idea as to what is going on, now.  So an upper level trough develops over the Eastern U.S. actually closing off over the Midwest on Sunday.  Potent pockets of energy will be rotating around the upper cyclone and that along with low level moisture we will see precipitation on Sunday be in the form of rain until late in the day when a rain/snow mix could begin.  Looking at the 00z/Saturday thermal profiles, they suggest that Sunday night will be all light snow.  I feel right now that accumulations would be on grassy surfaces and car tops and be up to an inch.  An isolated inch and a half could be possible in the northern-most counties of West TN.  Temps Sunday night will cool to freezing with the snowfall.  Scattered snowshowers could be possible on Monday morning.   This scenario should not produce any travel troubles.

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
1038 PM CST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28 2008.

 

.SATURDAY…A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH NEAR 50.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE. LOW 39. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 43.

.SUNDAY NIGHT…LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. LOW 32. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY…A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. HIGH 37.

GFS Says One Inch Snow Possible!

Will post later on this and the current thoughts on forth coming winter weather prospects:

Happy Thanksgiving To All!

Current Thoughts of Late Weekend Wintry Precip Chances

(Wednesday, November 26, 2008) - Wow did the U.S. global model do a flip to the other extreme of the spectrum for the first of the week.  It’s 12z depiction of Sunday’s weather places us in an area of accumulating snow. It appears to be overdone.  I’m staying with the European model which has been consistent this week in its depiction of the temperature and moisture profile with the trough that is expected to develop over the upcoming weekend.  I have included some graphics from the European model and some accompanying comments:

The left panel above shows the deep trough and upper low over the eastern U.S.  The right panel shows the surface features.  There will be energy pockets dropping down the west side of the trough and that will provide some instability that could contribute to at least some snow showers should there be available moisture.  Cold air will be in place and that factor will not be an issue.  Below is a graphic of the available moisture as of 6 AM Sunday morning. 

 

 

The moisture indicated around the upper low would advect SE into the Midsouth/TN Valley and give us the chances for snow showers or flurries.  I believe high temperatures in 30s are certainly do-able!

More later!

A Look Back at November 2000…

(Tuesday, November 25, 2008) – There are some striking similarities when you compare numbers from November 2000 to November 2008 in the Jackson Weather Record Book. I was prompted to do this when considering other signals (Southern, Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation indicies). December 2000 is ranked as the coldest December on record here in Jackson.In November of 2000, we had a sustained two weeks of below average temperatures (averaging -12.8º) from the 10th through the 22nd. The mother lode didn’t arrive until the last day of the month. Departures from average ranged from -5º to -21º during that two week period. The month ended -4.1º. It took us into December 2000 with an -11.3º temperature deficit.

So far, this November the temperature departure is at -4.6º. Through the 24th we have been in a week and a half streach of below average temperatures. Departures from averages have been on the order of -3º to -19º.

The irony of weather is that we started off the Winter 2000-01 with the coldest December on record, but the winter itself (Dec, Jan & Feb) was the 7th warmest on record. Go figure!!

December Arrives with King Cold Calling Card!

(Monday, November 24, 2008) – West Tennesseeans best prepare for December cold that will rival December 2000 before Auld Lang Syne is sung.  The Arctic Oscillation Ensembles and North Atlantic Oscillation Ensembles are tanking and the European model is catching on and eventually the GFS will. 

European Model Valid 12z Sunday 11/30/08

The first surge will be Sunday, last day of November.  The first graphic shows the approaching trough that will drive the arctic cold into the region later in the day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The trough continues to deepen as evidenced by the graphic below which is valid 12z Monday, 12/1/08.

500mb / Sfc Pressure-Thickness Panels Valid 12z Monday 12/1/08

Click to enlarge the panels above but notice how the 540dm thickness line is in the Deep South and with the prospect of the next short wave dropping down into the trough it will serve to keep it in place for some extra days.  Finally looking at the moisture panels suggest that the arctic air will bring at least the prospects for some snow showers the first week of December:

Ecmwf 850mb Moisture-Temperature Valid 12z Monday

I’m ready to get excited!  Comments welcomed and encouraged!!!