Nice Autumn Rains!

             Rainfall amounts in and near Madison County Tennessee

24 Hour Rainfall Amounts Upto 7 AM CDT Friday

Drying Out for the Weekend

(Friday, October 24, 2008) – Just before dawn showers were still operating over the eastern half of West TN. The heaviest showers at 4:45 am were from Lexington-Parsons south through Savannah. Upper level low pressure is spinning through MO this morning. Drier air is rotating around the low and is cutting down the moisture and thus low rain chances will prevail this morning. Models suggest that moisture will remain sufficient to keep us mostly cloudy today. A few peeks of sunshine would certainly be possible later this morning and again just before sunset.

As the low pushes away from us tonight we should see quick clearing. With the moisture on the ground, clearing skies and light winds, patchy fog could develop.

We go into the weekend with high pressure prevailing. Partly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s are expected for Saturday warming into the lower 70s on Sunday.

As I’ve been advertizing for the last several days, I’m still expecting the coldest air of the season to arrive late Sunday. Cold frontal passage should be during Sunday evening services in most locales. Not enough moisture for the front to work on to have any rain associated with it. It’s arrival will be noted by shifting winds that will increase in speed.

The chilly air will dominate our weather Monday and Tuesday before we begin a warm-up. Frost and freeze warnings will be possible as lows drop to around 32º Tuesday morning.

Warming should begin by Wednesday, it is likely we will not fall below freezing Tuesday night, but the question of frost is still not answered. Highs in the 50s are expected on Monday and Tuesday. We’ll return to the 60s Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Eddie Holmes, C.B.M.

West Tennessee Weather Online

West Tennessee Area Forecast

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:43 AM CDT Friday, October 24, 2008

 

.TODAY…SCATTERED SHOWERS, ENDING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING.

.TONIGHT…CLEARING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CHILLY. LOW 42.

.SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 62.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG. LOW 43.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER. HIGH 72.

.MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY AND COLDER. LOW 38. HIGH 56.

.TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 31. HIGH 58.

.WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 38. HIGH 64.

.THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 46. HIGH 68.

 

HOLMES

$$

Impressive Visible Imagery of Mid-Latitude Cyclone

Will be a rainy Thursday night!

Big Kahuna Cold Coming – Freeze Potential

A major trough will dig into the eastern U.S. early next week and this will send Canadian air into the region.  My Monday evening, high pressure over the plains will be ushing in the cold that will send temperatures Monday and Tuesday night to levels at or just below freezing.  Stay tuned!

 

West Tenn Forecast & Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:02 AM CDT Thursday, October 23, 2008

 

.TODAY…SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING, BECOMING NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 66. CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT…SHOWERS. LOW 48. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY…SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 64. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING.

.FRIDAY NIGHT…CLEARING. CHILLY. LOW NEAR 40.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 62.

.SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY LOW 45. HIGH 67.

.MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY AND COLDER. LOW 38. HIGH 50.

.TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 32. HIGH 50.

.WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 30. HIGH AROUND 60.

 

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:55 AM CDT Thursday, October 23, 2008

 

.SYNOPSIS

UPR LOW SPINNING OVER KS/NEB BORDER. MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF I-55. SFC REPORTS AT 09Z INDICATING PRECIP GENLY ALONG AND WEST OF A JBR-GLH LINE. LOWER LAYERS ARE MOISTENING NICELY WITH TDS RANGING FROM MID-50S AT MEM TO MID-40S AT PHT.

 

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY]

NAM/GFS ARE HANDLING RAIN SIMILARLY BRINGING IT TO MKL BY 18Z. I’M GOING WITH LOW CHC POPS THIS AM AND CATEGORICAL POPS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY SLOTTING IS INDICATED TO TAKE OVR FRIDAY SHUTTING DOWN PCPN BY 18Z. 00Z MAV HANDLES POPS REASONABLY WELL. UPR LOW IS FCST TO SPIN OUT OF KS INTO MO THEN NE TWD THE GRT LAKES. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST WE’LL MAY GET DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE FRIDAY, BUT WILL NOT TRY TO BE CUTE WITH THAT AND JUST KEEP MOCLDY IN FRI’S FCST. WL GO WITH PC FCST ON SAT.

 

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]

THIS PERIOD WILL SEE A DIGGING TROF INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, HOWEVER IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. YET THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL BE DELIVERED INTO OUR REGION RIGHT OUT OF CANADA. THE COLD FRONT WHICH LEADS THIS EXPRESS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS RAW TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S ON MON AND TUES. AM PREPARED TO TWEEK IT A CAT OR TWO BUT WILL LEAN IN DIRECTION OF THE RAW GUIDANCE. GFS IS AT BIT STRONG WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR SO THIS PROMPTS ME TO TEMPER THE NUMBERS. WARM-UP BEGINS IN EARNEST ON WED.

 

HOLMES

Coldest Air of the Season in Sight for Next Week

Minimum Temps for Tuesday Next Week

W. TENN. FORECAST AND DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:58 AM CDT Wednesday, October 22, 2008

 

.TODAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 71.

.TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING, BUT CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOW 57.

.THURSDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SPOTTY SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 67. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT…SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY…SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 44. HIGH 62.

.SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOOON. LOW 42. HIGH 62.

.MONDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 38. HIGH 56.

.TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 32. HIGH 56.

 

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:49 AM CDT Wednesday, October 22, 2008

 

.SYNOPSIS

HIGH PRESSURE OVR SE CANADA HAS PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO N-MS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR THAT HAS ARRIVED HAS PRODUCED AN IMPRESSIVE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 09Z, DEW PTS RAMPED FROM 33F AT PARIS TO 53 AT MEMPHIS INTL. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED AND THERE WERE SOME PRECIP RETURNS ON 88D OVER AR AND W-KY WHICH WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

 

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]

VIGOROUS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND BECOME A MONSTER CLOSED OFF CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY. IT WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR US THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE A DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF/UPR LOW AND SFC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING N AS WINDS BECOME SE’LY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. WL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ABOUT 12 HOURS BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THU BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL NOT ENTER W-TN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS (NO THUNDER) WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY SLOTTING WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO MO.

 

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]

THE GFS BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER IN MODEL CHOICES AS MOST GUIDANCE IS LEANING TWD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION OPENS THE CLOSED LOW BY FH96/00Z SUN AS YET ANOTHER S/W DIVES SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. THIS WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUN/MON. NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF SHOVES THKNESSES THE FURTHEREST SOUTH OF THE SEASON WITH THE 540DM LINE REACHING BMX BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS COULD SET UP MINS IN THE LOWER 30S. MEG IS ALREADY TALKING ABOUT IT IN THE HWO. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE!

 

HOLMES

Clouds Settling Into the Area

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:13 AM CDT Tuesday, October 21, 2008

 

.TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 70.

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW 47.

.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 71.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE EVENING, THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW 51. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.THURSDAY…SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGH 63. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOW 47. HIGH 57.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 43. HIGHS 61.

.MONDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. LOW 44. HIGH 68

HOLMES