Coldest Air of the Season in Sight for Next Week

Minimum Temps for Tuesday Next Week

W. TENN. FORECAST AND DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:58 AM CDT Wednesday, October 22, 2008

 

.TODAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 71.

.TONIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE EVENING, BUT CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT. LOW 57.

.THURSDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SPOTTY SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 67. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT…SHOWERS LIKELY. LOW 50. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY…SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE MORNING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT DURING THE MORNING.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 44. HIGH 62.

.SUNDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOOON. LOW 42. HIGH 62.

.MONDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 38. HIGH 56.

.TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 32. HIGH 56.

 

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:49 AM CDT Wednesday, October 22, 2008

 

.SYNOPSIS

HIGH PRESSURE OVR SE CANADA HAS PUSHED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO N-MS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR THAT HAS ARRIVED HAS PRODUCED AN IMPRESSIVE DEW POINT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 09Z, DEW PTS RAMPED FROM 33F AT PARIS TO 53 AT MEMPHIS INTL. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED AND THERE WERE SOME PRECIP RETURNS ON 88D OVER AR AND W-KY WHICH WERE NOT REACHING THE GROUND.

 

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]

VIGOROUS TROF OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND BECOME A MONSTER CLOSED OFF CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY. IT WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR US THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TODAY WILL BE A DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROF/UPR LOW AND SFC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTING N AS WINDS BECOME SE’LY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM. WL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ABOUT 12 HOURS BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY THICKENING CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THU BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL NOT ENTER W-TN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS (NO THUNDER) WILL BE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY SLOTTING WILL SHUT DOWN PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS UPR LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO MO.

 

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]

THE GFS BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER IN MODEL CHOICES AS MOST GUIDANCE IS LEANING TWD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS SOLUTION OPENS THE CLOSED LOW BY FH96/00Z SUN AS YET ANOTHER S/W DIVES SE OUT OF WRN CANADA. THIS WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUN/MON. NW FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF SHOVES THKNESSES THE FURTHEREST SOUTH OF THE SEASON WITH THE 540DM LINE REACHING BMX BY LATE MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVER SPREAD THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THIS COULD SET UP MINS IN THE LOWER 30S. MEG IS ALREADY TALKING ABOUT IT IN THE HWO. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE!

 

HOLMES