FORECAST & DISCUSSION
JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
4:59 AM CDT Thursday, October 16, 2008
.TODAY…SHOWERS LIKELY THIS MORNING, ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 65. CHANCE OF RAIN IS 80 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT…DECREASING CLOUDINESS. LOW 47.
.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 68.
.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 46.
~EXTENDED FORECAST~
.SATURDAY…SUNNY. HIGH 68.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY…MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY PLEASANT DAYS. LOWS AROUND 45. HIGHS AROUND 73.
.WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 50. HIGH 70.
HOLMES
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
4:57 AM CDT Thursday, October 16, 2008
.SYNOPSIS
GRLEVEL3 DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS BUILDING OVER W-TN AT DISCUSSION TIME. NO LIGHTNING BEING DETECTED THROUGH 0915Z. BASED ON SFC OBS, COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST KY TO NEAR MKL-MEM-SE AR. TEMPS DROP OFF 10 DEGREES QUICKLY WITH FROPA. AT 4 AM, THE TEMP AT DYR WAS 59 WHILE AT MKL IT WAS 71.
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY]
USING THE GFS MODEL FOR THIS PERIOD. QPF PEAKS OUT THROUGH 18Z AND THEN TAPERS OFF. H70 RH VALUES DROP OFF RAPIDLY BY 00Z FRI SO WILL GO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AM ENDING THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. GIVEN THE 80S WE’VE HAD FOR HIGHS THIS WEEK WILL USE “COOLER” WORDING TODAY. A S/W WILL DIG SE CARVING OUT A POTENT TROF THAT MOVES THROUGH WEST TN FRI NIGHT. WILL HIT CLOUDS HARDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT OTHW SHUD REMAIN DRY. THKNSSES BOTTOM OUT FRI NIGHT (552DM) THUS THE WKEND WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]
WL FOLLOW ECMWF FOR THIS PERIOD. TROF SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF E-COAST LATE SAT-SUN. WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY SUNDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CALM CONDITIONS SUNDAY AM COULD TAKE TEMPS TO AROUND 40. RIDGE FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN ECMWF DIGGS A S/W INTO THE N-PLAINS AND CUTS OFF AN UPR LOW OVR IA BY LATE WED. THIS WILL DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE WED. WILL INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR WED.
HOLMES
