Rain Making a Return Tonight

Forecast & Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:09 AM CDT Wednesday, October 15, 2008

 

.TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING, THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 84.

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLOUDY. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW 61. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY…A CONTINUED GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH 67. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT…SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOW NEAR 50. CHANCE OF RAIN LOWERING TO 40 PERCENT LATE.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 68.

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 43. HIGH 68.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 44. HIGH 73.

.MONDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. LOW 50. HIGH 76.

.TUESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 47. HIGH 68.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:59 AM CDT Wednesday, October 15, 2008

 

.SYNOPSIS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PROVIDING THE ARE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. 09Z SFC OBS AROUND W-TN INDICATING SOME PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

00Z UPR AIR CHARTS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE SE WITH TROF OVER THE C-PLAINS. AT THE SFC A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WK LOW OVR SE KS INTO THE MIDWEST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW. LOOP OF REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MVG NE ALONG THE TROF/SFC FEATURES OVER THE PLAINS. SFC TROF OVR NW GULF PRODUCING SCAT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS OVR SE TX.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY]

PLAINS TROF WILL SHEAR OUT TO THE NE INTO NEW ENG DURING THIS PERIOD. IT WL PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST INTO THE REGION. GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCES INCR POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. SEEMS REASONABLE AND WL FOLLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE DOESN’T DEPART UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH MOSUNNY AND COOLER ON FRI AND STAY WITH PREV FCST MAXES (UPR 60S). 

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THORUGH TUESDAY]

FLOW AMPLIFIES BRIEFLY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A TROF OVR THE EAST AND THEN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT BEFORE AMPLIFING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTR THE COOL DOWN FRI-SAT WL DO SOME WARMING ON SUN-MON THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL COME IN ON EARLY TUE. WL HOLD OFF OF MENTION OF POPS WITH THAT NEW INSURGENCE.

 

HOLMES