Severe Threat South; Heavy Downpours Still Possible

From the NWS:

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI…MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. BRIEF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10 PM CDT.

ADDITIONALLY…HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING.

Severe Weather Outlook

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

3:30PM CDT Tuesday, October 07, 2008

 

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

 

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  THE TIME FOR THE GREATEST THREAT IS BETWEEN UNTIL 10 PM.

 

* AREAS AFFECTED

 

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR WEST TENNESSEE WEST OF A LINE FROM DRESDEN TO JACKSON TO BOLIVAR.

 

* DISCUSSION

 

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WAS IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.   

 

WTWO/NWS/SPC

Suspect Area for Possible Watch

SPC Watching for Severe Potential

Posted at 1:35pm CDT – From the Storm Prediction Center

   0130 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS…WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ADDED AND WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

FORECAST & DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:48 AM CDT Tuesday, October 07, 2008

 

.TODAY…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH 75. CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TAPERING OFF. LOW 62. CHANCE OF RAIN LOWERING TO 40 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH 72.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…DECREASING CLOUDINESS. LOW 56.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.THURSDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 76.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY WARM DAYS. MAINLY CLEAR COMFORTABLE NIGHTS. HIGHS AROUND 84. LOWS AROUND 59.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:51 AM CDT Tuesday, October 07, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

A VIGOROUS S/W IS PUSHING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE TROF HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH PW VALUES BASED ON GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. REGION RADAR SHOWING A CHANNEL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE TO S-CEN TX. STRONGEST ACTIVITY AT DISCUSSION TIME WAS OVER E-CEN AR BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LGTNG DATA. CELLS IN THE STUTTGART AR AREA HAVE HAD 1-HR RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR – SEVERAL COUNTIES ARE UNDER FFW. THESE CELLS ARE MVNG NE AND COULD AFFECT BE IN THE MEM METRO AREA NEAR COMMUTING TIME THIS MORNING. AT THE TIME I’M WRITING THIS – 9:30Z – ISO STMS ARE DEVEL BETWEEN MEM AND HOLLY SPRINGS MS.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY]

SPC AND MEG BOTH ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. MEG NOTES THAT GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF A JBR-MEM-CORINTH LINE. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE WITH US TODAY AND BY TONIGHT SOME DRY-SLOTTING SHUD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA. WL TOP OUT THE TANK ON POPS TODAY AND WITH THE EXPECTED DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW WILL TAPER THE POPS DOWNWARD. THIS IS REFELECTED IN PREVIOUS FCST AS WELL. QPF 48-HR GRID INTERPOLATIONS BY GFS GIVES JACKSON 0.62 INCHES OF RAIN AND NAM INDICATES 2.18 INCHES. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CERTAINLY WOULD LEAN TWD NAM. HPC DAY 1-2 QPF GRAPHIC CONCURS.

48 HR Rainfall Forecast

TROF EXITS THE AREA BY THU. WUD EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON WED NITE INTO THU AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN QUICKLY BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]

DURING THIS TIME FRAME, MAJOR TROF WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. LITTLE WX EXPECTED WITH THIS EVOLUTION. MODELS SUGGEST A PROGRESSIVE FLOW SO THIS TROF WILL BE APPROACHING US BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT US UNTIL NEXT WEEK – BEYOND THIS FCST PACKAGE. WILL REMOVE ONGOING MENTION OF POPS AND EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD.

 

HOLMES