Forecast & Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:05 AM CDT Thursday, September 25, 2008

 

.TODAY…SUNNY. HIGH 84.

.TONIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 49.

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING, THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 82.

.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 58.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 54. HIGHS 83.

.MONDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 58. HIGH 83.

.TUESDAY…A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOW 55. HIGH 77.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY…MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL NIGHTS AND PLEASANT DAYS. LOW 48. HIGH 74.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:00 AM CDT Thursday, September 25, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLDS OVER W-TN’S ERN COUNTIES, SKIES ARE CLEAR AT 09Z WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 52 AT SAVANNAH TO 61 AT DYERSBURG. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS BEING REPORTED WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT COVINGTON AND 1/2 MILE AT SAVANNAH. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST (WHICH TPC IS EYEING AS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS) AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GR.LKS AND N-CEN PLAINS.

.SHORT TERM [THU-SAT]

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD IS THE IMPACT IF ANY OF THE CYCLONE OFF THE SE COAST. THE MODELS ALL GENLY AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL MV WEST TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACIANS BY LATE FRI. THE 24/21Z SREF MEAN KEEPS QPF EAST OF THE TN RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST MRH ALSO STAYS EAST OF TN RVR. GIVEN THE CURRENT SAT PRESENTATION OF CLOUD SHIELD WILL CONTINUE WITH P/C FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR US TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST HIGH-LVL CLDS. S/W IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE N-TIER OF STATES WILL PICK-UP THE UPPER LOW AND LIFT IT NE PRETTY QUICKLY. N/NE WINDS PRECEEDING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE EAST PROVIDE A BIT COOLER AIR LOWERING MAXES AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY TODAY. ADDITIONALLY DEW PTS WILL BE GOING INTO 40S LATER TODAY AND THUS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AGREE WITH MAV THAT MINS IN THE UPR 40S ARE POSSIBLE. OTHW FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL FOLLOW MAV/MET NUMBERS CLOSELY.

.LONGER TERM [SUN-THU]

AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL ASSIST IN PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION INTO A L/W TROF OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF IS BEING DEBATED, BUT THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST INTRUSION OF THE SEASON. THE FRONT LEADING ITS WAY WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS MRH VALUES AOB 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MRH VALUES INCREASE A BIT ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT QPF FCST ON TUE. THIS IS ALL COVERED WELL WITH CURRENT FCST AND WILL NOT TAMPER WITH IT. WILL LOWER MEX TEMP VALUES A BIT FOR WED/THU TIME FRAME OTHERWISE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

 

HOLMES

Warm Afternoons; Pleasant Nights

Forecast and Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:08 AM CDT Wednesday, September 24, 2008

 

.TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. HIGH 88.

.TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOW 52.

.THURSDAY…SUNNY. HIGH 84.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.THURSDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 52.

.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 82.

.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 58.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 56. HIGHS 83.

.MONDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 59. HIGH 82.

.TUESDAY…A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOW 55. HIGH 77.

.WEDNESDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT. LOW 48. HIGH 74.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:02 AM CDT Wednesday, September 24, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

ANOTHER QUIET AUTUMN MORNING ACROSS W-TN. SOME SCT MID-LVL CLDS NOTED ON IR IMAGRY. JUST A LITTLE FOG REPORTED IN SOME OF THE RIVER BOTTOMS. WK SFC TROF HAND-ANALYZED FROM MEM TO PAH. OTW SFC HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM NEW ENG TO THE DEEP SOUTH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GRT LAKES INTO THE C-PLAINS. UP STAIRS, H50 RIDGE NOTED ON UPR CHARTS FROM SE TX THRU LWR OH VALLEY INTO GR. LKS. UPR LOW OFF NC COAST AND WV/UA ANAL SHOWING S/W PUSHING INTO THE ARKLATX.

.SHORT TERM [WED-FRI]

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND EVENTUAL IMPACT ON UPR LOW OFF SE COAST THAT WILL MOVE WEST. LAST TWO DAYS MAX TEMPS IN W-TN HAVE BEEN IN MID-UPR 80S AND WILL GO WITH THAT AGAIN TODAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET A PUSH IN OUR DIRECTION AND WILL LIKELY BECOME JUST A WINDSHFT LINE AS IT ARRIVES TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS A BIT LWR DEW PTS AND GENLY A CAT COOLER TEMPS. WL LEAN TWD MAV NUMBERS ATTM FOR THU. BY LATE FRI, THE UPR LOW IS OVER THE SMOKIES AND THE SFC REFLECTION IS OVER SC. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THINKING THAT OUR SKIES WILL GO P/C IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRI BUT ANY POPS WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST.

.LONGER TERM [SAT-WED]

WL GO ALONG WITH HPC IN FAVOR OF THE 00Z GFS FOR THIS PERIOD. THE UPR LOW OVR THE APPALACIANS WILL LIFT OUT THIS WEEKEND LEAVING A MEAN TROF OVER THE GRT LAKES. NW FLOW WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. THERE IS JUST LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AS THE GLFMX IS CLOSED DOWN. SO LOOKING FOR LITTLE WX WITH THE FIRST FRONT. A MORE SIG S/W IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY THROUGH THE MEAN TROF ON TUESDAY, EFFECTIVELY AMPLIFYING THE L/W TROF. THIS ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER INSURGENCE OF CANADIAN AIR…THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON…TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. I WL ADD ISO POPS TO THE FRONTS ARRIVAL SCHEDULED ATTM TO BE ON TUESDAY. I THINK MEX’S HIGHS IN THE 70S ON TUE AND WED OF NEXT WEEK LOOK REASONABLE. I WOULD EXPECT MINS ON WED TO BE IN THE 40S. STAY TUNED!

HOLMES

Quiet Autumn Weather…

Forecast & Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:07 AM CDT Tuesday, September 23, 2008

.TODAY…PATCHY FOG FOR EARLY COMMUTERS, THEN SUNNY. WARM THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 88.

.TONIGHT…CLEAR WITH SOME PATCHY LATE-NIGHT FOG. LOW 55.

.WEDNESDAY…SUNNY AND WARM. HIGH 88.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…CLEAR. LOW 52.

.THURSDAY…CONTINUED SUNNY. HIGH 85.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.THURSDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 55.

.FRIDAY…PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH 84.

.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 58.

.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 55. HIGHS 83.

.MONDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 57. HIGH 82.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:57 AM CDT Tuesday, September 23, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

SAT IMAGES AND SFC OBS AT 09Z INDICATE CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG IN SOME OF THE LOWER RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED INTO THE UPPER 50S IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE MEM METRO AREA OF W-TN. VERY LITTLE WIND TO REPORT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM NEW ENG SW INTO TX. H50 RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM E-TX THRU MID-MS VALLEY INTO GR.LAKES INTO C-CANADA. TROF IS OVER THE WRN US AND ALONG THE E-COAST.

.SHORT TERM -

RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL FLATTEN/RETROGRADE AS TROF OVER THE EAST FORMS A CUTOFF LOW THAT MVS W TO SE COAST BY LATE THU. MEANWHILE ON THU, A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA AS ANOTHER HIGH MVS ACROSS THE N-PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GRT LAKES. SO VERY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR US WITH TD’S IN THE 50S..WILL SEE THE CONTINUED 25-30 DEGREE DIURNAL SPREAD IN TEMPS.

.LONGER TERM

THE EURO BRINGS THE UPR LOW AS FAR W AS E-GA ON FRI AND SUGGESTS SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE COULD MAKE ITS WAY VERY CLOSE TO US. I’M GOING TO GO WITH P/C ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE CUTOFF WILL GET PICKED UP BY S/W THIS WEEKEND BUT WILL LEAVE BEHIND SOME LOWER HGTS. STILL NO CHG TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. MOISTURE IS SCANT AND A DRY FCST IS INDICATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CMC/GFS BRING A VIGOROUS S/W FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD ALTHO HPC BRINGS THE CANADIAN FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, WHICH APPEARS A BIT FAST.

HOLMES

Between Weather Makers = Dry Weather Week

500mb Prog VT 00z Thu

A Bit Unsettled Going Into the Weekend

Forecast and Forecast Discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:10 AM CDT Friday, September 19, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

WE HAVE COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A S/W THAT BROUGHT CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION LAST NIGHT…A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS FROM SAT IMAGES AND SFC REPORTS THAT THE S/W MAY BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAT THE MODELS INDICATED THAT IT WOULD BE. THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES INDICATED ON KNQA ACROSS IN THE VICINITY OF KMEM INTO AR AT 0921Z. THE RETURNS ARE MVNG NW.

.SHORT TERM -

- TODAY: PER HPC WILL FOLLOW NAM ON THE SHORT TERM WHICH SUGGESTS A VORT LOBE WILL LIFT THRU W-TN THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AS INDICATED BY MRH VALUES WHICH INCREASE AND VERY LIGHT QPF IS PAINTED ACROSS THE AREA. MET POPS ARE AT 25 AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO I WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISO T’STMS INTO TODAY’S FCST.

- TONIGHT: WEAK FORCING TONIGHT WARRENTS MAINTAINING ONLY 40PCT POPS TONIGHT.

- SATURDAY: LTL CHG IS NOTED WITH THE S/W AXIS PROGGD TO BE JUST W OF MS RVR. WL KEEP FCST MOCLDY AND 30PCT POPS GOING.

.LONG TERM – [SUN-THU]

TROF EXPECT TO NOT LIFT OUT UNTIL MONDAY. I WILL MENTION AT LEAST ISO DIURNAL POPS ON SUN. THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD WILL INVOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROF OVER THE EAST COAST AND A POTENT TROF OVER THE W-CONUS. WE SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. BY THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK THE UPR RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THE WRN TROF BEGINS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPR/MDL MS VALLEY. THE GULF SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP FOR BUSINESS ON THU. ANY POPS WILL BE BEYOND THE THU TIME PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME KEPT THE LONG RANGE DRY.

HOLMES

Warm & Dry

AM Brief

Area Forecast and Discussion

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:04 AM CDT Thursday, September 18, 2008

.TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH 84.

.TONIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 56.

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH 84.

[[[ FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WEATHER FORECAST ]]]

7:00 PM – PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURE AROUND 78 WITH A LIGHT WIND.

–WEEKEND OUTLOOK–

.FRIDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW AROUND 60.

.SATURDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 83.

.SATURDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 59.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH 85.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:02 AM CDT Thursday, September 18, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

WV IMAGRY SHOWING THE UPR TROF OVER THE EAST. S/W IS NOTED OVER WRN TX. IR/SFC OVS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST STATE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT 09Z WWERE IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF MEM METRO AREA. IF THERE WAS ANY WIND BEING REPORTED, IT WAS OUT OF THE N-NE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM MO TO C-TX. A COLD FRONT ARCS FROM NEW ENG INTO C-IND AND THEN NE INTO IA BECOMING STNRY INTO E-MT.

.SHORT TERM

GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE TX S/W WELL. S/W RIDGE OVER US WILL PROGRESS E OVER OUR AREA TODAY SO LOOK FOR A SUN-FILLED DAY WITH HIGHS LIKE THEY WERE YDA, MAINLY LOW-MID 80S. AS RIDGE MOVES EAST AND TROF APPROACHES FROM W ON FRI, MRH VALUES INCREASE TO THE POINT TO MENTION AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND GFS PLACES 0.01″ QPF IN MEM AREA. MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS POPS NO HIGHER THAN 10 PCT AT MKL. FOR SAT – QPF IS HELD SOUTH OF REGION AND WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

GENLY LIKE MOS TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT AND FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

.LONGER TERM (SUN – THU)

MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT UPR TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN CONUS AND RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST. KEPT WX DRY THINK MEX IS TOO COOL IN THE WED-THU TIME FRAME AND KEPT BUMPED MAXES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES, I.E. MID 80S AND LWR 60S.

HOLMES