30’s Out East Friday Morning!

Current indications are that the insurgence of the Canadian air will widespread morning lows of 30s across East TN [graphic below].  Stay abreast of how this plays out by checking out Mike’s Cookeville Weather blog.

Minimums Forecast Valid 12Z Friday

Some Low Clouds Form; Otherwise Great Weather Welcomes October

IR Image 4:45AM CDT

FORECAST & DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:56 AM CDT Tuesday, September 30, 2008

 

.TODAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER. HIGH 76.

.TONIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 47.

.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 72.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 44.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.THURSDAY…SUNNY. HIGH 69.

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 42. HIGH 74.

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 52. HIGH 77.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 58. HIGH 80.

.MONDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW 61. HIGH 82.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

4:50 AM CDT Tuesday, September 30, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A PARIS-BROWNSVILLE-MEMPHIS LINE AT 09Z. THIS IS NOTED BY WINDS GOING FROM N TO NW AND SPEEDS INCREASING FROM CALM TO 10 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA. IN ANY EVENT, IT IS A DRY PASSAGE EXCEPT IN NORTHERN WEAKLEY AND NW HENRY COUNTIES WHERE GRLEVEL3 RADAR NOTED SOME 3HR RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING ONE-HALF INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THE ONLY CLDS REMAINING ARE IN THE NE CORNER OF W-TN. WV LOOP SHOWING IMPRESSIVE DIGGING OF TROF INTO THE ERN U.S.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY]

HPC’S PMDHMD IS RECOMMENDING GOING WITH GFS IN THE SHORT TERM, SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY. THE TROF WILL DEEPEN FROM ABOUT 580DM THIS MORNING TO 570DM BY 12Z WED AND HANG OUT AROUND 572DM FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. AS ANOTHER S/W DIGS INTO THE AREA WED, SOME CLOUDS WILL COME WITH IT BUT NO RAIN. HAVE P/C IN ONGOING FORECAST SO THAT WILL NOT CHANGE. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER ITSELF OVR AR ON THU. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GOING FORECAST NUMBERS. WILL BUMP MY WED’S HI’S TO L70S. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SAT TRENDS WILL REMOVE PREVIOUSLY INCLUDED POPS AND GO WITH A MOSUNNY FCST TODAY.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]

APPEARS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST WHICHIS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH CENTER BEING VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION. L40S WILL BE VERY REACHABLE WITH MAYBE SOME U30S IN THE PHT-SNH CORRIDOR. OTHW THE WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RISING HGTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HPC RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF IN HANDLING THE DEVELOPING TROF OUT WEST WHICH PUSHES INTO THE C-PLAINS BY LATE MON. THIS COULD SHAPE UP TO BE THE BEST RAIN-MAKER FOR US IN A WHILE AS FINALLY THE GOMEX WILL BE ALLOWED TO OPEN ITS DOORS. MEX NUMBERS REFLECT GFS MOVE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER PLAINS…THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. SO WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 PCT POPS FOR MON UNTIL CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW EVERYTHING WL COME TOGETHER.

 

HOLMES

Changing the Calendar – Changing Weather; Coming “Chill”

As we wind up September and change to October on the calendar, it appears September will set the stage for October’s entrance.  A major trough will evolve over ther eastern U.S. and this will open the door to a flood of Candian air the will be in place for this week.  We’ve been watching some of the forecasted low temperatures for later this week.  Check out one idea of lows for Friday morning:

FORECAST & DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:13 AM CDT Monday, September 29, 2008

 

.TODAY…SUNNY. HIGH 88.

.TONIGHT…BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE-NIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOW 55.

.TUESDAY…A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. COOLER. HIGH 75.

.TUESDAY NIGHT…MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW 44.

.WEDNESDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH 68.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT…MAINLY CLEAR. LOW 45.

.THURSDAY…SUNNY. HIGH 69.

.FRIDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 41. HIGH 70.

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 44. HIGH 76.

.SUNDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW AROUND 50. HIGH 78.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

5:08 AM CDT Monday, September 29, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN OK AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR NOTED ON WV IMAGARY IS GIVE US ANOTHER CLEAR QUIET MORNING. SFC OBS AT 09Z SHOW TEMPS IN THE 50-55 DEG RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. A MORE VIGOROUS COLD FRON EXTENDS FROM A LOW IN CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH TO ANOTHER LOW ON THE KS/NEB BORDER THE WEST INTO CO. THIS FRONT IS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A POTENT TROF DROPPING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND WILL CARVE OUT A L/W TROF OVER THE ERN US THIS WEEK. IT IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AHEAD OF IT THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]

ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE S/W THAT WILL LEAD THE DIGGING OF THE UPR TROF OVER THE US WILL REMAIN NORTH OR OUR REGION. THAT FACT COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE GOMEX WILL REMAIN CLOSED FOR BUSINESS WILL MEAN THE SYSTEM MUST BRING ITS OWN MOISTURE. MODELS PAINT SCANT MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE SUN-FILLED WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS. “MOSTLY SUNNY” SHOULD DO IT. I WILL USE “BECOMING CLOUDY” WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE ON-GOING 20% POPS. GFS PROVIDES NO 6-HR QPF ENDING AT 18Z MON. THUS MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z. I WILL KEEP THE 20% EARLY POP FOR TUE RATHER THAN SPLITTING HAIRS AND HAVE SKIES GO MOSUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF S/W IMBEDDED IN THE UPR FLOW WILL MV INTO THE AREA WED. SOME H7 MOISTURE IS NOTED ON GFS AND WILL GO WITH A P/C FCST ON HUMP-DAY. MOS HASN’T BEEN HANDLING MAXES WELL I BELIEVE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA. MKL HIT 89 AND I HAD 88 HERE AT THE OFFICE. I THINK WE’LL DO THE SAME TODAY. TUESDAY’S NUMBERS LOOK GOOD. THINK MET IS A BIT AGRESSIVE WITH MID-60S FOR HIGHS ON WED. I CURRENTLY HAVE UPR 60S AND THAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV/MET SO WILL STAY WITH THAT.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]

DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND UPR TROF REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE PERIOD. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LIKE THE LOOKS OF THE GFS RAW NUMBERS AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.

 

HOLMES

Chill-Down Outlook: Thursday’s Mins

Here is a peek at the projected minimum temperatures through 7 AM CDT next Thursday:

FORECAST & DISCUSSION

JACKSON-WEST TENNESSEE AREA FORECAST

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

7:10 AM CDT Sunday, September 28, 2008

 

.TODAY…SUNNY. HIGH 87.

.TONIGHT…CLEAR. LOW 52.

.MONDAY…SUNNY. HIGH 87.

.MONDAY NIGHT…INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE-NIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LOW 55.

.TUESDAY…A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER. HIGH 74.

~EXTENDED FORECAST~

.WEDNESDAY…CLEAR. HIGH 68.

.THURSDAY…CLEAR. LOW 45. HIGH 73.

.FRIDAY…PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW 52. HIGH 70.

.SATURDAY…MOSTLY SUNNY. LOW 46. HIGH 72.

HOLMES

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

7:05 AM CDT Sunday, September 28, 2008

.OVERVIEW -

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WEST TN AT 11Z. SFC OBS INDICATE A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM 52 AT PARIS AND HUNTINGDON TO 60 AT SELMER AND CAMDEN. LITTLE IF ANY WIND TO SPEAK OF.

AT 09Z, SFC MAP SHOWED WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVR S-CEN MO AND A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LAKES TO NEAR MCI WHICH BECAME STNRY INTO KS. 00Z/SUN UPR CHARTS SHOWED TROF OVER THE APPALACIANS TO NEAR PNS WITH A FLAT RIDGE DOMINATING THE WRN HALF OF US. A S/W IS NOTED IN THE WESTERLIES OVER WRN CANADA.

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY]

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SCENE THROUGH MONDAY. SO REALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL WORK THORUGH MONDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. NEXT WEATHER STORY WILL COME FROM THE S/W OVR WRN CANADA WHICH FCST BY MODELS TO AMPLIFY AND DIVE INTO THE WRN LAKES..BECOMING A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE A FULL-LATITUDE TROF EVOLVES OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE SFC, THE COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL WASH OUT AS IT LOSES UPR SUPPORT, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING TROF WILL BE PUSHING INTO W-TN MONDAY NIGHT. WE’LL BE IN OVC CONDITIONS ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FCST QPF BY MODELS IS LESS THAN 0.10 INCH. GFS/WRF ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A FROPA THAT WILL BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A CLEARING AND A BIT BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO-MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THORUGH SATURDAY]

UPR LEVEL PROG CHARTS HAVE THE LOOK OF WINTER MONTHS DURING THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH A DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST AND RIDGE OVR THE WEST. THE FLOW APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE, HOWEVER, WITH HGTS ON THE RISE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL DOMINATE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, VIRTUALLY UNNOTICED INSOFAR AS SENSIBLE WX IS CONCERNED. THUS, THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. COMPARING MEX WITH THE RAW GFS NUMBERS THEY ARE PRETTY CLOSE. I WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER OF THE TWO FOR MY FORECAST.

 

HOLMES

For Now…8th Driest September in Jackson.

Station Name	Total Precip
Jackson 4.0 NE (also Coop Station)	0.61
Jackson 1.4 SW (Also Coop Station)	0.81
Jackson 5.6 NE	0.72
Medina 4.0 SSW	0.63
Gadsden 4.9 SSE	0.64
Jackson 5.0 SSE (Also Coop Station)	1.11
Jackson 8.5 ESE	1.30
Medina 3.1 SE	0.80
Jackson Airport (MKL)	0.82

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

9:40AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2008

 

…JACKSON EXPERIENCING EIGHTH DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD…

 

THE MCKELLAR-SIPES REGIONAL AIRPORT IN JACKSON HAS RECEIVED A TOTAL OF 0.82 IN OF RAIN FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.  IF THE RAIN GAUGE DOES NOT RECORD ANY OTHER RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH WHICH ENDS AT MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON THAT VERDICT, IT WOULD RANK AS THE EIGHTH DRIEST.

 

ABOVE IS A TABLE OR RAINFALL REPORTS FROM COCORAHS STATIONS AROUND MADISON COUNTY.

 

BELOW IS A TABLE DEPICTING THE TOP TEN DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD IN JACKSON.

 

Year	Precipitation (Inches)	Rank (1948-2007)*
1997	—-	—-
1998	—-	—-
1956	0.06	1
1999	0.43	2
2004	0.49	3
1981	0.61	4
1953	0.62	5
1963	0.68	6
1983	0.74	7
1978	0.92	8
1961	0.98	9
1990	1.09	10

  

A Peek at Next Week’s Cold Snap

Models are beginning to paint a picture of an unseasonable amplified trough over the Eastern U.S.  This will present the coolest air of the season.  Thursday and Friday will be the coolest days of the week.  Check out the raw numbers being forecast by the GFS model.  These are morning lows next Friday:

Would This Constitute “Pretty Weather?”