Gustav and the Tale of Two Models

As Fay departs, our region is left with a tranquil weather pattern for a couple of days.  A cold front will approach from the NW Friday and that will give us a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  The bigger weather news is sitting on the back burner and could be ominous for those living on the Gulf coast. 

T.S. Gustav, downgraded from a hurricane this morning as it interacts with the Haiti landmass, is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend as a major hurricane.  I wanted to show an example of two operational models’ handling of Gustav (understand, forecasters have a plethra of models to work with) . 

European Model - Valid 7 AM Monday

The European model to the left shows a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile what is referred to as the GFS model barely has a closed low indicated in the Gulf. 

Right now hurricane forecasters are favoring a track and intensity for Gustav that is closer to the European model.  Interests along the coasts of the NW Gulf of Mexico around through the Northern Gulf will need to stay up on the latest forecast projections on Gustav.