Latest Severe Weather Outlook From NWS

335 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE
HAIL…AND TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE MID SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

 

Flash Flood Watch Thursday Afternoon Into Friday Morning

459 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WEST TENNESSEE…CARROLL…CHESTER…CROCKETT…DYER…
  FAYETTE…GIBSON…HARDEMAN…HAYWOOD…HENDERSON…HENRY…
  LAKE…LAUDERDALE…MADISON…OBION…SHELBY…TIPTON AND
  WEAKLEY.

* FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
  AMOUNTS…WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
  PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH
  FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS…THE
  MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE…AND NORTHWEST
  MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN WEST TENNESSEE…DECATUR…HARDIN AND MCNAIRY.

**Moderate Risk** of Severe Thunderstorms Thursday & Thursday Night

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
500 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

……………OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT……………..

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
  
   THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG-TRACKED.  AT THIS TIME, THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM THURSDAY AND 4 AM FRIDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED

   A **MODERATE RISK** OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS LANDING TO PARSONS TO SELMER. 

* DISCUSSION
  
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO TURNING WITH HEIGHT.  THAT ALONG WITH WARM AND MOIST INFLOW OF AIR AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WILL UPGRADE SOME PORTION OF THIS AREA TO A ***HIGH RISK*** .

* ACTION STATEMENT

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXPECTED POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION.

WTWO/SPC