NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 6 PM AND
MIDNIGHT CDT SOUTHWEST OF A WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE TO BATESVILLE MISSISSIPPI LINE AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND AGGRAVATE RIVER FLOODING…SINCE
MANY RIVERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLY
OVER 80 MPH ARE THE MAIN HAZARD…THOUGH LARGE HAIL…AND TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

 

Today’s *Slight Risk* Expanded East and South

8:30am – The SPC has expanded the *slight risk* area east and south.  The area is now west of a line from Parsons to Somerville.

Severe Weather Threat Tonight and Thursday Night

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
515 AM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

……………OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT………………….

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
  
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT.  THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

* AREAS AFFECTED

   A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS LANDING TO JACKSON TO SOMERVILLE.

* DISCUSSION
  
  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN A WEAKENING TREND BY THE TIME THEY CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

 
……………….SPECIAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT……………..

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING
  
   THE THREAT EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES…SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG-TRACKED.  AT THIS TIME, THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE BETWEEN 7 PM THURSDAY AND 4 AM FRIDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED

   A **MODERATE RISK** OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEST OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO HENDERSON TO MIDDLETON. 

* DISCUSSION
  
THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO TURNING WITH HEIGHT.  THAT ALONG WITH WARM AND MOIST INFLOW OF AIR AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. 

* ACTION STATEMENT

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS ASSOCIATED WITH THISEXPECTED POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION.

WTWO/SPC