Today’s Weather Talking Points

5:00am – Current satellite images and forecast guidance suggests we will see some sunshine but there will be cloudiness from time to time.  A lot of low level moisture still in place. 

New surge of moisture from the south will cloud-up our skies tonight and interject more showers and thunderstorms after midnight.  The rainfall could be heavy at times Thursday morning.  Flash flood guidance indicates all it takes is 1.5 inches in an hour for flash flooding.   The rain tonight through Thursday morning will be due to a northward lifting warm front. 

Rain chances will drop off some late Thursday into Thursday night as the front lifts out of the area.  It will become breezy and mild as West TN goes into the warm sector (south of the warm front and east of an approaching cold front).  Look for Thursday night temps to remain in the 60s with gusty winds. 

What about the prospects for severe weather?  It appears there will be especially Thursday morning and then Friday afternoon.   Below are the SPC Outlooks.  Both Thursday and Friday have West TN in a *Slight* Risk area:

Below is a graphic of the total rainfall expected over the next 3 days (Click on image to enlarge):

Check back for later posts on this developing weather situation.

Flash Flood Watch EXTENDED Through Friday Evening

From the NWS:

330 AM CDT WED APR 2 2008

…HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING…

.A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE AREA MOST AT RISK FROM FLASH
FLOODING WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS… ACROSS THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD AS FUTURE FORECASTS WARRANT.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS…SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
  TENNESSEE…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN EAST ARKANSAS…
  CLAY…CRAIGHEAD…GREENE…LAWRENCE…MISSISSIPPI…POINSETT
  AND RANDOLPH. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT. IN
  WEST TENNESSEE…CARROLL…CROCKETT…DYER…GIBSON…HENRY…
  LAKE…LAUDERDALE…OBION AND WEAKLEY.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
  ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT…AND LIFT ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
  AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY
  THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ALONG WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT…NEW RIVER FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI
  BOOTHEEL..AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
  ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ALONG SMALLER RIVERS AND
  TRIBUTARIES. RIVER FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR THE
  LATEST CREST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.