April Ends On a Warm-Up

5:00 am – April will be ending on a warming note.  Following record low temperatures yesterday, we’ll see highs today back where they are supposed to be for the last of the month.

Predawn conditions were chilly, but not like they were 24 hours ago.  Temperatures at 4 am ranged from 39º at Huntingdon, Savannah and Bolivar to 45º at Dyersburg, Covington and Silerton. 

High pressure is over the eastern U.S. and will provide us with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures.  This afternoon we’ll notice breezy conditions develop and a spring storm system gets wound up over the lee of the Rockies. 

We’ll feel the effects of the storm system through the upcoming weekend.  Showers and storms will not arrive until Friday.  Highs today will be in the upper 70s, while Thursday will see near 80º.  

The cold front associated with the storm system moving across the plains will bring us a threat of severe weather as it approaches and passes through the area late Friday.

All of W. Tenn. is in an area of *Slight* risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.

Right now it appears the main threat will be damaging winds and large hail.  It also appears the greatest threat will be from late afternoon through late evening.  We’ll post additional details as the details are fine tuned.

 

Frost & Severe Weather Potential – Main Weather Stories of the Week

5:05 am – It’s clear and in the 40s at this hour over West TN.  Temps range from 41 at Paris to 47 at McKellar-Sipes Airport in Jackson.  These readings are 5-10 degrees below average for late April.  High pressure ridging in from the southern plains will give us a mostly sunny morning.  Meanwhile a cold front with modified arctic air behind it will arrive this afternoon.  It will bring some moisture with it.  So look for some clouds and isolated showers and rumbles of thunder. 

The main story with this front will be the cold air behind it.  Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight.  With mostly clear skies and light winds expected by sunrise, there will be areas of patchy frost.  Frost advisories may be needed.  The record low in Jacskon is 37º and we’re anticipating 35º.

It will be chilly on Tuesday – even with sunshine.  Highs will crest near just past 60º – more like mid-March rather than the end of April.

A nice warm-up will begin mid-week.  A potent storm system will be intensifying over the plains late in the week and will pose a threat for severe weather for us sometime of Friday.  I’ll be talking more about this as the week progresses.

A Feel Good Friday!

5:05am – High pressure will serve up a warm breezy day today.  Highs are expected to reach the 80s.  A cold front will bear down on us this evening.  I think a majority of the rain (showers and thunderstorms) will come in the front AFTER dark.  Evening sports activities maybe able to get games in before 9 pm.  It will be closer with better prospects in the eastern half of W. TN.

The rain is in and out quickly with clearing by daybreak Saturday.  The weekend starts off dry and cooler.  Clouds are back into the area Saturday night, but it will be dry. 

Sunday – the front returns from the south and along with a low pressure will bring the rain back to end the weekend. 

Have a happy & safe weekend!

Some PM Rain Chances

5:15am – Latest satellite and radar images below show weather disturbace that is expected to bring us at least clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. (Click on image for larger view)

The disturbace that is responsible for our rain chances will weaken as it approaches.  Model guidance suggests that the precip area will diminish.  This looks reasonable.  So look for only scattered activity and that will be during the afternoon today.

That system exits the area tonight and we should be dry.  Friday we’ll be between weather systems and I expect a partly sunny-warm day. We’ll cloud up again Friday night.  After midnight, showers and thunderstorms will return.  Given the late-night arrival, severe weather chances will be next-to-nil.

Fortunately, the front leaves with the rain Saturday and it should turn out to be a nice day.  However, the front stalls and a wave of low pressure forms on it and the rain returns Sunday.

Quiet Warm Weather Over the Region

5:10 am – Tuesday, western portions of the area came under the influence of showers and thunderstorms from a pre-dawn complex of thunderstorms that worked its way south out of MO during the morning and by afternoon had enough instability to produce some severe weather near the MS River.  The only storm report from TN was nickle-sized hail in downtown Memphis just before 2:30pm.  Most of the rain was in the western half of W. TN.

Pre-dawn temps are mainly in the 50s and where it rained yesterday there is dense fog this morning.  Visibilities are at 1/4 mile or less along the MS River.  A dense fog advisory is in effect for LAKE-OBION-DYER-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON  counties until 9 AM.

Look for the fog to burn off and a partly sunny day unfold with warm highs into the mid-80s.  Quiet tonight:  partly cloudy and 62 for the low.

A weak weather disturbance brings clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Highs will reach for 80.   The rain chances back-off on Friday and highs will crest above 80.  A cold front comes onto the playing field Friday night.  I thinks showers and thunderstorms will be likely and probably AFTER midnight…so evening activities MAY stay dry. 

It appears we’ll get in the first half of the weekend dry…however, the front that comes through Friday night is expected to return north on Sunday and along with it will be higher chances of showers and thunderstorms.   Bummer!! 

 

Enjoying the 80s!

5:30am – The headline is not talking about music from an era gone by!  Rather the temperatures.  Check out the highs yesterday:

                 12HR   24HR    24HR
STATION          HIGH   LOW     PCPN

MEMPHIS           83     58     0.00
NWS MEMPHIS       85     52     0.00
JACKSON           83     46     0.00
DYERSBURG         81     52     0.00
SOMERVILLE        85     49     0.00
BOLIVAR           81     43     0.00
SELMER            80     47     0.00
SAVANNAH          80     42     0.00
LEXINGTON         80     42     0.00
HUNTINGDON        79     46     0.00
UNION CITY        81     46        M
PARIS             77     46     0.00

With only a couple of exceptions, everybody reached 80º or higher.  It was fine!!

The 4 am surface weather map showed us under the influence of high pressure:

The high pressure will hold until the cold front in the plains makes a run at us at the end of the week.  It doesn’t appear there will be very large chances of rain, but the best bet appears to be Thursday through Friday night.  But I don’t think I would cancel any tee-times just yet!

 

Great Spring Weather – Continued

5:00am – Looking at pre-dawn satellite image:

Only some high clouds are passing through the area associated with a weak upper level disturbance.  Ridge of high pressure will control our weather through mid-week.  Look for the mainly clear days and a lot of moonlight at night!  Tuesday, a renegade shower could pop-up but chances are slim at this time.

Better chances of rain come Thursday through Saturday.

Second IL Earthquake – 4.5 Magnitude

Earthquake Details

Magnitude	4.5
Date-Time	Friday, April 18, 2008 at 15:14:16 UTC Friday, April 18, 2008 at 10:14:16 AM at epicenter
Location	38.539°N, 87.865°W
Depth	10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region	ILLINOIS
Distances	13 km (8 miles) E (81°) from West Salem, IL 14 km (8 miles) W (275°) from Allendale, IL 15 km (10 miles) NE (48°) from Bone Gap, IL 34 km (21 miles) WSW (243°) from Vincennes, IN 68 km (42 miles) NNW (336°) from Evansville, IN 207 km (129 miles) E (92°) from St. Louis, MO
Location Uncertainty	horizontal +/- 2.7 km (1.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters	NST=152, Nph=152, Dmin=30 km, Rmss=1.65 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source	U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: World Data Center for Seismology, Denver
Event ID	us2008qzbx

IL Earthquake Magnitude Revised to 5.2

Earthquake Details

Magnitude	5.2
Date-Time	Friday, April 18, 2008 at 09:37:00 UTC Friday, April 18, 2008 at 04:37:00 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location	38.450°N, 87.890°W
Depth	11.6 km (7.2 miles) set by location program
Region	ILLINOIS
Distances	7 km (5 miles) NNE (13°) from Bellmont, IL 9 km (6 miles) E (88°) from Bone Gap, IL 11 km (7 miles) N (350°) from Keensburg, IL 60 km (38 miles) NNW (331°) from Evansville, IN 206 km (128 miles) E (95°) from St. Louis, MO
Location Uncertainty	Error estimate not available
Parameters	NST=111, Nph=111, Dmin=36.4 km, Rmss=0 sec, Gp= 61°, M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source	Center for Earthquake Research and Information, Memphis, Tennessee, USA
Event ID	us2008qza6

Earthquake Felt in West TN

Earthquake Details

Magnitude	5.4 (Preliminary magnitude — subject to revision)
Date-Time	Friday, April 18, 2008 at 09:36:57 UTC Friday, April 18, 2008 at 04:36:57 AM at epicenter
Location	38.501°N, 87.898°W
Depth	10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region	ILLINOIS
Distances	10 km (6 miles) ESE (103°) from West Salem, IL 10 km (6 miles) NE (55°) from Bone Gap, IL 13 km (8 miles) N (4°) from Bellmont, IL 39 km (24 miles) WSW (239°) from Vincennes, IN 66 km (41 miles) NNW (333°) from Evansville, IN 204 km (127 miles) E (93°) from St. Louis, MO
Location Uncertainty	Error estimate not available
Parameters	NST=021, Nph=021, Dmin=263.2 km, Rmss=1.07 sec, Gp=119°, M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=1
Source	West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS
Event ID	at00851141