Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms Monday Afternoon & Night

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN

921 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008…A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT…

• WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

  THIS EXISTS A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS,  HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM MONDAY AND 2 AM TUESDAY. 

   

• AREAS AFFECTED

  A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE  (SEE GRAPHIC BELOW) .

   

• DISCUSSION

   A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NWS/WTWO/SPC

A “10″ Weekend – Turns Wet & Wintry Monday Into Tuesday

6:10 am – Memphis hit 71 Saturday, Germantown 70 and the rest of W. TN was in the mid-60s.  What a terrific day!  Today would be a kite-flying day with mostly to partly sunny skies and everybody seeing 70s today!!  Partly cloudy skies tonight with overnight lows in the 50s.

Monday – clouds will thicken-up with the approach of a storm system in the plains.  Showers will be possible late-in-day but right now only about 30% coverage at worse is indicated. 

Monday night – this is when the action occurs. 

• First let’s discuss the severe potential.  SPC has all of W. TN in a “Slight Risk” area with MS and portions of SE AR and NE LA in a “Moderate Risk” area for severe thunderstorms.  See latest risk outlooks here.  The greatest risk of severe weather will be along and south & east of the surface low associated with this system.  I am favoring a track (N. LA to NE MS to SE middle TN to WV) that places the greatest risk of severe weather south of our area.  We’ll have showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night, but thunderstorms should be the non-severe type. There could be heavy rain Monday evening.  This will be monitored as well.
• Next, let’s consider the wintry weather potential.  My thoughts are that this will be a situation where the cold air arrives as the moisture leaves.  We’ll probably see the rain turn to snow as it ends with little travel trouble.  If any areas see wintry weather woes it will be from roughly Dyersburg to Paris and points north.
• Finally, this will be a developing situaton early Monday.  Stay abreast of the latest forecasts as a track difference north or south would impact the risk of severe weather and the type and extent of wintry weather for the region.