Latest From NWS

350 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008

…ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH…

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS
AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-
TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON-CHESTER-HENDERSON-DECATUR-SHELBY-
FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…UNION CITY…MARTIN…DRESDEN…PARIS…DYERSBURG…HUMBOLDT…
MILAN…HUNTINGDON…COVINGTON…JACKSON…LEXINGTON…BARTLETT…
GERMANTOWN…COLLIERVILLE…MEMPHIS…MILLINGTON…SOMERVILLE…
BOLIVAR…SAVANNAH

 …FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TODAY…

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NOON THURSDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Radar/Temperature Trends Through Noon

3:45am – Currently radar showing only isolated returns mainly over SE MO and NE AR.  Comparing three computer models (RUC13, NAM & GFS) they all indicate main precip area to our south, which would be the area of concern, will move into most of W. TN after 9 am.  All models and gridded data showing temperatures rising above freezing after 9 am.

Freezing Rain Advisory Until Noon For All of West TN

1155 PM CST WED FEB 20 2008

…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM CST THURSDAY.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NOON THURSDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Freezing Rain Advisory Area May Need To Be Expanded by Daybreak

From Special Weather Statement issued by the NWS at 9:34pm…

MID-SOUTHERNERS IN LOCATIONS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY ARE ADVISED TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IN CASE THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH…ESPECIALLY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
DURING RUSH HOUR.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ACROSS NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY 600 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING…THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WILL END
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

For the full text click here.

PERSONS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

Freezing Rain Advisory For Northern West TN

From the NWS:

324 PM CST WED FEB 20 2008

…SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH…

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-

…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
12 PM CST THURSDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
CST THURSDAY.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY NOON THURSDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Special Weather Statement – Issued 235pm – NWS

WWUS84 KMEG 202037
SPSMEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CST WED FEB 20 2008

…FREEZING RAIN AND ICY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF A HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO RIPLEY TENNESSEE TO PARIS
TENNESSEE LINE…

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FALL
TO OR BELOW FREEZING…PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH IN INTERVALS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 600 AM CST FRIDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF A HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO RIPLEY TENNESSEE TO PARIS
TENNESSEE LINE MAY SEE LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.

HOWEVER…AREAS NORTH OF A WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO KENNETT MISSOURI
LINE MAY SEE GREATER ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE.

ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY 600 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING…THE THREAT FOR ICY CONDITIONS WILL END
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIPITATION MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

PERSONS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

Precip Returns Late Tonight – Light Icing at the Onset

5:00am-  Arctic cold front in MO early this morning will pass through much of W. TN by noon.  Highs will come this morning, in fact very close to where there are currently.  Probably will see a very typical temperature gradient this afternoon.  Union City area could see temps fall to near 27. Temps fall to around 37 in Jackson area and points south.  Except for some spotty drizzle, the front should come in with only clouds.

Main area of precip arrives late tonight as overrunning moisture flows up and over the cold dome of air over us.  Light freezing rain should begin in the Memphis area first and spread northeast to Union City – Huntingdon – Lexington – Savannah by daybreak Thursday.  Liquid amounts should be between 0.10″-0.20″.  Travel troubles and school superintentent headaches will be a real possibility Thursday morning, especially on untreated highways. Temperatures will likely be in the 20s near the KY state line…near 30 along the I-40 corridor and in the mid-30s near the MS state line.

During the day on Thursday…low pressure will lift out of LA into NE MS.  This track will let temperatures warm to above freezing by late morning or noon and top out around 40.  Precip will diminish some in the afternoon. 

Rain…all liquid…will continue in the forecast for Thursday night and temperatures should hold in the 40s.

Friday…left over rain will be ending and highs will be in the 40s.

Weekend weather should be quiet it’ll be chilly Saturday with highs in the 40s.  Sunday should see highs in the 50s.

Icy Potential for Wednesday Night Into Friday

3:50pm- Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook form NWS:

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MID SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
IN PLACE MAY COMBINE WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID SOUTH.

Hazardous Weather Outlook On Ice Potential Wed./Thu.

Issued by NWS at 4:22am:

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDSOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE…SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

Winter Forecasting Can Be a Nightmare!

10:30pm – Cold front arriving from the north tonight.  Early Monday evening it was along the OH Rvr extending across Srn MO.  Clouds over SW MO producing some snow reducing visibilities to 1-2 miles.  We could awaken to this Tuesday morning.  Most areas will see flurries.

The front goes stationary just south of Jackson and with a low pressure-clipper system on the front moving east into the OH Valley, the stationary boundary will come back north as a warm front late in the day on Tuesday.  This, as a massive high pressure and arctic air mass drops south out of Canada.

The arctic front will arrive in W. TN early Wednesday.  I’m expecting temperatures to fall throughout the day.  Then the fun-and-games and forecasters’ (and school superintendents’) nightmares begin.  The arctic air pours over the area on Wednesday.  On Thursday a potent upper level system comes out of the southern Rockies and lifts moisture up and over the arctic air.  Precipitation is expected to break out again over the area.  It appears it will be maybe sleet and freezing rain or freezing drizzle.  Surface low pressure forms over Srn TX on Thursday evening and shoots toward Nashville on Friday.  This track will bring it close enough to W. TN that the precipitation should change to rain.  The question will be when.  It appears right now the precip on Friday will be all rain.  So all need to stay up on the latest forecasts this week. 

I’ll be posting as info becomes available.