Winter Forecasting Can Be a Nightmare!

10:30pm – Cold front arriving from the north tonight.  Early Monday evening it was along the OH Rvr extending across Srn MO.  Clouds over SW MO producing some snow reducing visibilities to 1-2 miles.  We could awaken to this Tuesday morning.  Most areas will see flurries.

The front goes stationary just south of Jackson and with a low pressure-clipper system on the front moving east into the OH Valley, the stationary boundary will come back north as a warm front late in the day on Tuesday.  This, as a massive high pressure and arctic air mass drops south out of Canada.

The arctic front will arrive in W. TN early Wednesday.  I’m expecting temperatures to fall throughout the day.  Then the fun-and-games and forecasters’ (and school superintendents’) nightmares begin.  The arctic air pours over the area on Wednesday.  On Thursday a potent upper level system comes out of the southern Rockies and lifts moisture up and over the arctic air.  Precipitation is expected to break out again over the area.  It appears it will be maybe sleet and freezing rain or freezing drizzle.  Surface low pressure forms over Srn TX on Thursday evening and shoots toward Nashville on Friday.  This track will bring it close enough to W. TN that the precipitation should change to rain.  The question will be when.  It appears right now the precip on Friday will be all rain.  So all need to stay up on the latest forecasts this week. 

I’ll be posting as info becomes available.