Great Weekend Forecast; Turns Wild Next Week

5:00am – At post time, a few sprinkles are beginning to show up on radar over N. West TN into SE MO & NE AR.  Showers should increase in number over the next few hours.  This, as a weak weather system/cold front passes through today.  I think most of the rain will be outta here by sunset.  Clouds will decrease overnight.

So long February.  Hello March!  March begins with a weekend–that’s a good sign.  The weather should be wonderful.  Highs both days in the 60s.  Sunday, in fact, has it’s eyes on 70!  That’s it! No fine print. 

Oh, yeah, did I mention we may have to pay for it as we go back to work/school next week?   A wild work week begins with heavy rain potential and ends with some winter weather.  I think severe weather theats will remain to our south. 

• A major upper level system forms over the plains, producing a surface low pressure over LA and it moves across AL into toward VA.
• It appears Monday will be a day with the threat for heavy rain (again, severe weather should remain south).
• Monday Night & Tuesday the low continues to intensify.  Cold air is expected to pour into the region changing the rain to wintry precip.  As always, track and timing will be important.  Given the expected strength of the system, it could produce an accumulating snow.  Will post during the weekend as needed to shed light on the forecast.

Meanwhile…have a great weekend!

It’s a Warm-Up from Here!

5:00am – I was able to log 0.2″ of the fluffy flakes late Tuesday afternoon.  The fluffy flurries are still falling as of post time and will likely continue for a couple of more hours. No accumulation expected.  Should see a decrease in cloudiness this afternoon.  With highs today near 40 today should be the coldest day of the next 7.  That’s good news if you’re inviting spring fever!

After a clear-cold night with lows near 25, southerly winds will push temps to the 50s on Thursday. Moisture will increase on the heels of the warm-up with a few showers possible Thursday night. 

Friday…a Pacific cold front (that is, a front that has “Pacific air” behind it, rather than arctic air!) will be entering the area.  So expect showers and a few thunderstorms.  That should leave us with the first weekend of March feeling like it.  We’ll enjoy some sunshine and temperatures in the 60s!

A storm system will bring more showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

A Brisk Weather Day; Flurries Tonight

5:00am – The wind may have awakened you this morning.  Cold front leading the way for Canadian air pushed through the area during the wee hours and now high pressure is moving in.  Low pressure on the front NE of Bowling Green, KY was intensifying (its low pressure was getting lower) while the high pressure will moving into our area.  That translates into a tight gradient of pressure between the two and thus the gusty winds.  They’ll be with us throughout the day.  A wind advisory is in effect until 6 pm for W. TN.  

It’ll be cloudy as well with temperatures falling into the upper 30s this afternoon.  Tonight…a pocket of energy will drop into the area and wring out enough moisture for some flurries or maybe some snow showers.  No accumulation is expected.

Sunshine breaks out tomorrow, but it’ll be about 15 degrees colder than average with highs only around 40.

We warm up on Thursday–highs return to the 50s.

Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Tonight

7:20am – SPC has now expanded north the Slight Risk area. Generally the area is south of a line from Ripley to Jackson to Savannah.

The latest HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK from the National Weather Service can be seen here.

 

An Unsettled Final Week of February

5:00am – Mostly cloudy skies with temperatures mainly in the 30s just before dawn in West TN.  High pressure over the area has done little to erode the low clouds that are due to trapped moisture in the lower atmosphere.  The next weather system is organizing in the western plains and will intensify as it approaches today.  With its approach and high pressure retreating to the east, we will see southerly winds push temperatures into the lower 60s today–an early feel of March.

The cold front will push through W. TN tonight; with it comes showers and thunderstorms.  There could be an isolated strong storm.  A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists for Mississippi, just to our south. 

 The latest thoughts from the NWS:

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM CST TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS THE
MAIN EXPECTED HAZARD…THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM CST TONIGHT.

Colder temperatures will arrive behind the front with temperatures falling to around 40 tonight and not really going anywhere on Tuesday.  Residual moisture and colder air could result in some snow showers mixing in with the rain showers.  Just spotty snow showers are flurries are expected Tuesday night as temperatures fall into the 20s.

Some afternoon sunshine is expected on Wednesday with highs at least 10 degrees below average–the lower 40s. 

We’ll warm up Thursday with the next round of showers and thunderstorms expected by Friday.  February closes out with highs near or just above the average of middle 50s.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Monday Night

From the NWS:

352 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2008

A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH…PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

…Light Wintry Precipitation Possible Overnight…

From the NWS:

352 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2008

…LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO FAYETTE TENNESSEE TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE
LINE…

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF A HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO FAYETTE TENNESSEE TO SAVANNAH
TENNESSEE LINE. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  AS TEMPERATURES AT
THE SURFACE FALL INTO THE 30S…PRECIPITATION MAY FALL IN THE FORM OF
SLEET MIXED IN WITH RAIN THROUGH 800 AM CST. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PERSONS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

All Warnings/Advisories Cancelled; Chilly Dreary Day Ahead

4:30am – NWS cancelled all warnings and advisories shortly before 4 am.  At post-time, radar showed numerous showers over eastern W. TN advancing east.

Morning weather map has frontal boundary from Clarksville, TN to low over NE MS.  All of this will be pushing east as the upper level system moves in from the west.  Until that happens, low clouds and some morning fog will be evident this day.  Temps will top out in mid-40s, at best, today.

Drier air will move in overnight tonight.  We’ll see slow clearing.  Lows near 30.

Daytime Saturday will be decent.  Morning sunshine and an increase in clouds in the afternoon.  Highs should be in the 40s.

Those Saturday afternoon clouds will be ahead of a weather low pressure that will scoot across the area Saturday night.  Some of the weather models indicated some patchy rain or snow will be possible.  No ice issues. Lows near 32º. 

Sunday will see clearing with highs near 50.

Have a grand weekend!!

Ice Storm Warning Until 6 AM Friday

LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…UNION CITY…MARTIN…DRESDEN…PARIS

934 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

…ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY. THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ICE STORM WARNING AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING.

FREEZING RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LIKELY WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 INCH. DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ARE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPER OFF BY 600 AM CST FRIDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES
AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

Freezing rain advisory continues for

DYER-GIBSON-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DYERSBURG…HUMBOLDT…MILAN
934 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
FRIDAY…

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING.

FREEZING RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA OVERNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH
ARE EXPECTED RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE TAPER OFF BY 600 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Freezing Rain Advisory for NW Half of W. TN

From the NWS 

351 PM CST THU FEB 21 2008

…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY.

LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-

FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING…ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS…TO RIPLEY
TENNESSEE…TO PARIS TENNESSEE.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING BY 600 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. 

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.