Overnight Flurries; Then Warming Trend Commences

9:00 pm – Looking at the regional radar…

the last area of precipitation to swing through the area is what you see over AR.  Those are primarily snow showers.  They are rotating around an upper low over MO and will lift across NW TN after midnight.  Wrap around moisture could give flurries to the rest of W. TN. 

Friday will see clouds clear and sunshine over the area by afternoon.  It will be below average temperatures with highs only near 40. 

Saturday will see an increase in the amount of clouds, but highs should still be in the 50s.

Sunday a developing storm in the plains will lift a warm front into our area and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Monday will be unseasonably mild as the warm front lifts north of the region.  Highs well into the 60s expected.  The cold front portion of the storm sweeps into the area Tuesday morning.  So expect it to become stormy late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center is already noticing the potential for severe weather with the Monday/Tuesday system.

Fair weather high pressure will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday before another possible round of storms late next week.

Heaviest Precipitation Now East

4:05 pm – Winter Storm Warning Downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory for the following counties:

LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-

NWS text:

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT…
…WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING PRODUCING A THIN
LAYER OF ICE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND ONE TENTH INCH OR
LESS. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH UP TO ONE
INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Parent system over N. AR is producing light precipitation at this time.  This will primarily affect the advisory area.  For the rest of the area light rain, mixed with snow at times will be possible this evening, then a few flurries late tonight. 

Sunshine breaks out on Friday and highs will try for 40.

A warming trend will continue through the weekend with thunderstorms back in the forecast by late Sunday into Monday.  Will have to watch for any that could become severe.

Winter Weather Advisories Extended for Some; Will Expire for Others. Warnings Unchanged

1125am – NWS will be extending the Winter Weather Advisory until 4 pm for the following counties: SHELBY…TIPTON…FAYETTE…HAYWOOD…AND MADISON as mixed precipitation is expected to continue.
Advisories for other counties will be expiring as just rain is expected.

Winter Storm Warning remains intact until midnight tonight for the following counties:  LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE AND CROCKETT.

Temperatures Will Tell the Tale of this Winter Storm

6:40am – Temperatures will be a critical weather factor today.  Looking at regional radar you will see a 100 mile gap between the current wave of precipitation and the next round moving NE across southern and western AR.  This is

is expected to be into W. TN by mid-morning.  Thus, temperatures at or below freezing will result in locales seeing increased precpitation.  Some of the current models suggest that freezing rain will be the predominate precipitation form in areas under a Winter Storm Warning.  A quarter inch or greater ice accumulation is likely there. 

At this time, along and south of I-40, by the time this new area of precipitation temperatures are expected to be above freezing and ending any icy conditions. 

Will post further as needed.

Winter Storm Warning for Parts of W. TN

4:30 am – NWS Official Warning Text for the counties of:  LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-DYER-
GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-CROCKETT-

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW…SLEET…AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS…THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY BE LIGHT
THIS MORNING BUT PICK UP IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT ICING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET…WITH UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW…
SLEET…AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

……WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF WEST TENNESSEE UNTIL NOON TODAY…

418 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
TODAY…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW…SLEET…FREEZING RAIN…AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND
SOUTHERN WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH ALONG WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. AFTER NOON
CST…TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING WHICH WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN MOST
AREAS. ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS…SO CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION IF DRIVING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Winter Weather Advisory for All of W. Tenn

3:45am – Here in N. Jackson we have light sleet and light snow and 30 degrees.  Temps are at or just below freezing throughout most os W. TN.  Regional radar showing plent of moisture.  The areas in central AR are increasing some in area coverage.  Temperatures will be critical to travel today.  Current data suggest temperatures could get above freezing in the Jackson area by 9 am.

Winter Weather Advisory For Parts of the Area Thursday

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

Official Statement from the NWS:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
407 PM CST WED JAN 30 2008

…A WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
ARKANSAS THURSDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST
THURSDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM CST
THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN…SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. BY NOON…ANY ICY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW…SLEET…OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Another Close Call!?

3:20pm – Mid-afternoon temperatures ranged from 34º at Union City to 41º at Jackson under full sunshine.  Infrared satellite images showing low level moisture beginning to return north and northeast over southern TX and the TX coast headed our way.

This moisture is expected to quickly advance into our area overnight tonight.  I’m expecting temperatures to get into the upper 20s before the clouds move in after midnight. That should cause the temps to level out. 

The air over us is very dry with dew points in the teens.  As moisture continues to increase on Thursday, it will begin to saturate the atmosphere.  At the outset, wouldn’t be surprised to hear about isolated reports of sleet.  As temperatures warm, it should turn to all rain.  Look for a rainy Thursday afternoon.  Surface low pressure should come out of TX/OK border and scoot through southern AR across MS into the Middle TN area by mid-night Thursday night.  At that time cold air will be rushing into W. TN and we could see the rain becoming mixed with snow…then maybe a few flurries before the moisture moves out.  Not anticipating much in the way of accumulation at this time.  Will have to keep evaluating the situation and make additional posts if anything changes.  

Areas of Greatest Snow Possibility

11:15am – The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has mapped out areas with greatest snowfall potential:

Wintry Weather Tonight and Thursday Night??

10:45am – new model data is still not convincing me that we have much chance of wintry weather early Thursday, OTHER THAN the precipitation beginning briefly as sleet but then changing over to rain.   I may be wrong, but that’s my take on the data.  Not all that impressed about wintry precip early Friday morning (pre-dawn hours)…OTHER THAN a few flurries before the moisture moves out.  Admittedly it’s close…but chances are snow geese get disappointed again.