Weather Watch Possible This Afternoon

From the Storm Prediction Center, issued at 12:38pm CST:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN LA…
   ERN AR…WRN MS…WRN TN AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS AFTERNOON.

Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN 1200 PM CST SAT DEC 22 2007   …SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING… WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THE TIME OF GREATEST RISK IS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.   AREAS AFFECTED   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A PARIS TO JACKSON TO BOLIVAR LINE…WITH THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 40.               DISCUSSION           AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE           NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE AN ATTENDING COLD FRONT PASSES           THROUGH OUR AREA.  THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH           THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HEIGHTEN THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING           WINDS IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.   WTWO/NWS

Your questions are welcomed.  I’ll try to respond in a timely manner!

Winds, Storms & Snow on Christmas

Weather between now and Christmas across the Jackson-West Tennessee area will be affected by strong winds, storms tonight and talk of some snow on Christmas. 

This morning’s weather is coming under the influence of a strengthening low pressure over the Red River of TX/OK.  The is forecast to move to Missiouri by 6 pm this evening.  A strengthening low pressure means that the pressure in the center of the low will be falling and that means the pressure difference will be steep between it and high pressures on either side of the low.  This will be reflected in the strong winds this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight.  The NWS has posted a Wind Advisory. 

Given the strength of the system, including the strong wind fields, coming in tonight a few strong thunderstorms could have some damaging winds.  The time for the greatest risk of damaging thunderstorm winds would be between 3 pm and midnight this afternoon and evening. Stay tuned on that aspect of the thunderstorms expected with the approaching cold front tonight. 

The system will move out quickly and leave Sunday breezy, chilly but at least partly sunny.  The next weather system really has no surface features, it will be due to a upper level wind shift passing through Monday and Tuesday.  It doesn’t appear there will be a lot of moisture available but due to the system’s potency, some moisture could fall out and current projected atmosphere temperature profiles indicate that the north half of West Tennessee could see a little light snow…along the I-40 corridor rain-snow mix…and south of the interstate a cold rain.  The time frame on this is Monday Night and Christmas morning. But remember, at this time, whatever falls should be light and no travel problems are anticipated. 

Happy Holidays = Merry Christmas + Happy New Year!  

All New Blog!

This post begins a new theme and new approach to this blog.  I will be posting comments about current conditions and weather news as it interests me or as it is brought up for comment and for forecasts short and long-term. 

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Low-level moisture remained trapped near the surface and the clouds refused to break today busting the prospects for sun and 60s.  So now we get ready for yet the next “every-other-day” storms system.  This will be a low pressure and cold front that will push into the St. Louis area dragging a cold front to the MS River by Saturday Evening.  Showers will be breaking out ahead of the front and thunderstorms could be strong in N. MS…depending if the warm front that is attached to the system stays south of TN.  The warm sector (south of the warm front) is expected to stay over MS. 

Looks like this system will clear the area and leave Sunday dry with some sunshine but cooler. 

Next, is an upper level disturbance that will drive a weather system into the area Christmas Eve and Christmas day.  The thermal profile of the atmosphere is conducive to some snow mixed in with the rain, however, moisture looks to be limited.  Passing through this time of the year will cause a lot of attention…but may be more bark than bite–stay tuned!

The next weather system is timed to pass through the area on Wednesday night.  This appears more potent and will contain more moisture.  However…temperature profiles indicate an all rain event!

Winter arrives at 12:08 AM December 22nd.