Polar Express to Arrive Early New Year’s Morn

6:15am – Clear skies prevailed over W. TN overnight.  Southerly winds began to stir in some areas preventing temperature falls in some locals and thus a wide range in temperatures just before sunrise.  Temperatures at 5:00 am ranged from 25 at Savannah to 36 at Jackson, Dyersburg and Somerville. 

The morning weather map shows high pressure over the southeast states and a weather system which is producing light snow over northern MO into neighboring NE and IA.   As that system pushes into the midwest today it will drag a cold front into our area this afternoon.  It might produce an isolated shower or two this afternoon.  Look for temperatures to warm into the 50s ahead of this front.  This will be by far the warmest day of the shortened work-week.  By the way, the front coming through this afternoon is not the polar front.   The polar front is in Missouri.     

 The polar front is expected to arrive before sunrise on New Year’s morning.  Here are my forecasted temperatures: Today 56 / Tonight 31 /Tuesday 33 / Tue Nite 18 / Wednesday 29 / Wed Nite 16 / Thursday 39

Once we get to the weekend, the warm up will be welcomed: highs in the 50s Saturday and low 60s on Sunday.  Showers should return with the warm-up, but chances will remain low.   

 

Weather Has No Issues On Last Weekend of ‘07

6:15am – Pre-dawn infrared sat image (right) shows moisture in the form of a dense cloud canopy being slung north into W. TN.  Regional radars are showing rain as far north as a Huntsville, AL – Meridian, MS line.  This moisture will be booted east out of the area today.  Otherwise, low temperatures are mainly in the 20s, following highs yesterday ranging from 40 at Union City to 48 at Lexington, Jackson and Savannah.

This last weekend of 2007 will close out with a mix of sun and clouds and tempeatures today around 50 or so.  Overnight, weak high pressure over the region will give us mainly clear skies and temperatures again going down into the upper 20s and low 30s.

 

Monday’s 6 PM weather map (left, click to enlarge) will show one front passing through the region.  This front could produce one or two isolated showers with its passage.  But up the road from that front…over Missouri… that is the Arctic front that will plow through Monday night.  I won’t rehash its passage as my thinking remains unchanged (see Saturday’s post for details).  I must add, however, since I didn’t hit it very hard in yesterday’s post, that winds will really become an issue on Tuesday.  At times winds will be sustained between 20-25 mph.  That will push daytime wind chill temperatures into the teens on Tuesday.  And once again, flurries will be flying especially Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.  A dusting could even occur in some locales, north of I-40.  A good day to be by the fire watching football!

The warm up on the heels of this arctic punch will be just as dramatic as the cold air’s arrival.  It may bring some scattered showers in for next weekend, which is pretty typical during the winter in W. TN.

Weather To Be Quiet To Close 2007

6:30am - I’ve put together the top five weather stories for Jackson/West TN and will be putting them on my website (www.jacksonweather.net) on Tuesday.  It will include some photos as well.  Feel free to comment on your guesses in order from 1 to 5!  Sorry, won’t be giving away a car or anything if you get it right .      To the weather….

As of 6:00am, satellite images and surface reports over West TN indicated only high clouds over the region.  Temperatures were in the 20s and 30s with very little wind if any.   High pressure is building over the area and it will be good to see some sunshine today!!  Regional radars showing the closest rain over SE-AL.

The final weekend of 2007 will a little warmer than average (Hi: 48/ Lo:30).  High pressure will shift east during the weekend as the weather pattern gets ready to transition into a deep trough over the east which will open the door to the North Pole and let polar air surge south.  Here’s how that should play out:

• Monday proves to be a decent day as high pressure over the southeast delivers us a partly sunny day and maybe some isolated afternoon showers and high temperatures in the mid-upper 50s.
• The polar cold front will arrive Monday evening.  NOTE: folks heading out to watch night services or New Year’s Eve parties will notice a stark difference when they leave their particular event than when they arrived.  Temperatures overnight New Year’s Eve/New Year’s morning will bottom out around 30. 
• As mentioned in a previous post, temperatures will be struggling on Tuesday.  Cold air advection and winds of 15-25 mph will just not let the mercury rise much – 35 tops!  That’ll shake our boots. Plus, snow flurries will be flying!
• Tuesday night and Wednesday the cold air will continue its grip.  After overnight lows in the teens. Highs again on Wednesday will struggle to get above the freezing mark – 35 again.
• Thursday night will be the coldest night as the high passes overhead.  Lows in the teens will be common again. 

This cold air will moderate quickly because, again, the weather systems across N. America are progressive so the first weekend of 2008 will likely see temperatures above average once again.

A Wet Friday Morning…

6:30am – Weather system producing morning rains (and a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings this morning in McNairy and Decatur Counties) will exit the area this afternoon.  High pressure prevails through much of the weekend.  Not enough moisture expected Sunday to keep rain chances in the forecast so they’ve been dropped. 

Polar cold front arrives late Monday bringing the coldest start to a new year in about six years (see previous post).  Coldest temperatures will be Thursday morning as the high center perches right on top of us.  One computer model gives us a low of 12º Thursday morning.  I don’t think that number is out of the question!  So we’ll see.  We’ll go into a quick warm-up for next weekend. 

Two Rounds of Rain, Then the Cold Cometh!

9:00 am – a late post…thank you sinus congestion!  Posts will start being around 5:00am weekdays beginning next Thursday (1/3/08). 

Low clouds are aggravating this morning.  Had hoped for a little sun and we may see some but looks like a mostly cloudy rest of the day.  You can see (image on right-click for larger view) from this visible satellite shot over the region how widespread the low clouds are.

Otherwise surface high pressure prevails.  Next rainmaker is going to get its act together over the plains and rain will make a return tonight. 

Rain will continue through the day on Friday. Exiting the region by Friday night. 

High pressure should take us into the weekend with some dry weather.  Another weather system, weaker than the one expected by Friday, will scoot along the Gulf coast Sunday.  Along with its upper level system, there won’t be as much moisture available with it as it pass through the area, thus very small chances of precipitation are expected.

The weather news for next week will be the coming cold.  It will time out to arrive with the new year.  This will be a polar delivery and temperatures are forecast to be the coldest of the winter season thus far.  Below is the forecast weather map for New Year’s morning:

That brings up an interesting side note:  this will be the coldest New Years Day since about 2002.  New Year’s Day 2008 is forecast to have a morning low of 27 and a high of 37… just a 10 degree spread between the low and the high…frankly with the cold air advection on winds likely to be out of the north at 15-25 mph…we may not get above 35.  I went back through the New Years Day files and found the following lows and highs for comparison (this is for Jackson’s McKellar-Sipes Airport):

• 2007: 26/45
• 2006: 38/69
• 2005: 53/69
• 2004: 45/61
• 2003: 41/44
• 2002: 14/32
• 2001: 10/23 -brrrrr
• 2000: 40/64

 So first day of 2008 appears to be the coldest in 6 years.  

 

 

 

Progressive Weather Pattern Continues

7:30 am – Currently only a few clouds across W. TN and temperatures have bottomed out in the 20s. Satellite images showing potent upper level disturbance pushing though TX.  Regional radar shows numerous showers and t’storms there.

It appears the progressive west to east flow of weather systems will continue through at least this weekend.  Computer models indicate this TX system will lift NE into AR this evening and New England by Thursday evening.  Clouds should quickly increase this afternoon with rain moving first into the Memphis area this afternoon and then quickly over the rest of the area by nightfall or soon after.  This will quickly move on out.  So, most of the rain will occur before midnight tonight.  Highs today will try for low 50s.  Lows tonight behind the exiting system will be in the lower 30s.

Yet, another system, that is currently dropping into the Rockies, will lift out Thursday toward the Great Lakes.  We may get in some sunshine on Thursday, but clouds will make a quick return in the afternoon and the rain will arrive on Thursday night and linger into Friday. 

High pressure will build in for the start of the last weekend in 2007.  A mostly sunny Saturday is expected.  Another weather system is expected to pass through Sunday.  At this time, moisture return ahead of the system will be scant…so only slim chances, if any, will be in the forecast. 

The longer range models are indicating a large scale pattern change for the beginning of the new year.  A major longwave trough is expected over eastern North America and this will allow some invasion of polar air into the region.

Merry Christmas!

7:30am – High pressure over our region giving us a frosty Christmas morn.  My low temperature here was 24º.  Abundant sunshine will warm us into the 50s today. 

A weather system will bring rain chances to the area beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday night.  We are between systems on Thursday and Friday and maybe early Saturday, so it should be dry. 

Rain chances go back up the latter part of the upcoming weekend…the last one for 2007.

Quiet Christmas Holiday Weather

9:15 am -  The sunrise weather map showed high pressure centered over the Lower MS Valley.  In the upper levels a disturbance over the Plains will be pushing through our area during the next 24 hours.  If we only had more moisture available and just a bit cooler temperatures….arghhh.  Well that’s life in West TN…White Christmasses are usually just a dream.  But it’s fun to hope.  When reality sets in we just set that fact aside and enjoy the holiday.  Snow would have its down-side of course if YOU are the one traveling, right?  Just fall on the grass please.  That would be the icing on the cake or the homemade boiled custard on the homemade coconut cake.  Sorry, back to the weather.  

So, the weather system that passes through tonight will bring us only an increase in mainly high cloudiness.  After high temperatures in the 50s today (by the way a chilly start to this day – the lowest temp I’ve found around W. TN at post time was 25 at Dresden) we should warm into the 50s everyday this week.  Average high is 49º. 

Precipitation chances will be low later in the week as weather systems continue in a progressive pattern which minimizes the build-up of moisture.  So, scattered rain chances mainly Thu-Fri…with the weekend starting off dry, but ending with some rain chances.

Those of you with last minute shopping plans…”Go get’em!!”

Merry CHRISTmas!

                                                                         

White for Christmas Remains a Dream

6:50am  – Skies are quickly clearing at post time and boy is it cold!  Winds have been gusting to near 30 mph driving wind chills to near 20F this morning.  High yesterday was 59F, here, low has been 33F.   High pressure is settling in over the southern plains as the cold front which came through overnight pushes east out of the Volunteer State.

 We are in a “progressive” weather pattern across the country, meaning weather systems are on the move – they are not getting hung up over any one area.  The “Christmas” system we’ve been watching is still scheduled to arrive.  It will provide the “lift” necessary to form clouds…but low-level moisture will not have time to build this far north to get us any precipitation – sorry (you’ll have to take it up with Management)!  So Christmas Eve will probably see increasing cloudiness.  With the system lifting out quickly, Christmas Day should have a mix of sun and clouds.  Temperatures will be seasonal.

Isolated Severe Threat Shifted South

Risk of severe thunderstorms now over Mississippi.  Wind Advisory continues.