Heaviest Rains Should Remain South

 

Unsettled Weather for the Next Couple of Days

5:15am - regional radar at 5 am was indicating showers and thunderstorms generally along and south of I-40…then continuing southwest from Memphis into NE TX.

Frontal system approaching from the NW will come to a screeching halt over NW TN as it looses its upper level push.  Meanwhile, Thursday a series of low pressures will ride up along the front.  All things considered, showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Thursday before diminishing Thursday night.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Shelby and Fayette Counties

Rain & Storms To Return

5:20am - Cloudiness is expected to thicken up ahead of plains weather system.  Once rain arrives it will set in through Thursday night. 

Below is an approximation of 72 hour rainfall amounts through Friday AM:

 

A Beautiful Start to the Week, But…(there’s always the “but”)

Satellite image from 4:15 am.  

 

 

Tornado Watch 298 Until Midnight

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0643 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008
  
   …SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT…
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES…WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL FROM THE ARKLATEX AND MID SOUTH REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
  
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
  
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
          MUCH OF ARKANSAS
          MUCH OF GEORGIA
          FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
          FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY
          NORTHERN LOUISIANA
          SOUTHERN MISSOURI
          CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
          WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
          FAR EASTERN TEXAS
  
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
   STATES THIS AFTERNOON…EMERGING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   BY LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION AND GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST…AND THIS UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
TORNADOES…DAMAGING WIND AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA…THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
STRONG TORNADOES WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS…NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
   IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES…WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI…ALABAMA…AND GEORGIA.
  
   THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
   SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA WEATHER
   RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

**MODERATE RISK** of Severe Weather Across All of W. TN

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
6:00 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

…A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN WEST TENNESSEE WILL BE FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

* AREAS AFFECTED

A **MODERATE** RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

* DISCUSSION
  
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT…WHILE A WARM FRONT WILL
SURGE NORTH INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A WARM…MOIST…AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

* ACTION STATEMENT

AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO…MEDIA OUTLETS AND WEB SITES.  REVIEW SAFETY RULES AND MAKE SURE FRESH BATTERIES ARE PROVIDED FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE POSTED AS NECESSARY.

WTWO/NWS/SPC

Severe Weather Risk Increases Going Into the Weekend

The latest from the NWS:

356 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS…
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL…NORTH MISSISSIPPI…AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE…TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 5 PM CDT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO
ARKANSAS TO JACKSON TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE MEMPHIS
METROPOLITAN AREA AND TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM…MOIST…AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Weekend

Special Weather Statement from the National Weather Service:

457 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2008

…A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT…

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A
WARM…MOIST…AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…AND TORNADOES.
THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

MID-SOUTHERNERS SHOULD KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A Stormy Period Setting Up To Take Us Into the Weekend

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
4:40 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2008

A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

                                           …….TODAY……..

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 9 AM THROUGH 3 PM.

* AREAS AFFECTED

A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TO DYERSBURK TO MEMPHIS.  

* DISCUSSION
  
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY.  IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

                                   …..FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT….

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 3 PM TO 8 PM.

* AREAS AFFECTED

A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. 

* DISCUSSION
  
THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.  UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

                               ….SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING….

* WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED

A *SLIGHT* RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

* DISCUSSION
  
LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE IT WILL CAUSE THE FRONT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.  THE LOW’S ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL PRODUCE CONDTIONS CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

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* ACTION STATEMENT

AREA RESIDENTS NEED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THE SCENARIOS OUTLINED ABOVE COULD DEFINATELY CHANGE AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES.  ADDITIONAL POSTS WILL BE PROVIDED AS NEEDED.

WTWO/NWS/SPC