Severe Weather Outlook

ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON.

What Happened? Late-Night Sirens Warrented?

(Sunday, July 5, 2009) – At 12:33 AM, the NWS in Memphis issued a tornado warning (see text below) that included Madison County.  This was based on the rotational signature (see radar image below, note the yellow circle) that was near Cedar Grove in Carroll County.  In the radar image the green against the red in the image was a rotational signature that prompted the warning.  The NWS uses a “storm-based” polygon warning system in which the polygon now projects the path and areas that could be affected by the storm.  This polygon picked up the NE corner of Madison County.  Thus the sirens were triggered. 

At 12:49 AM, the warning was cancelled for Madison County (see text below).

1233 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
  SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE…
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…
  NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1234 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES NORTH OF BLUE
  GOOSE…OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILAN…MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

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1249 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

…THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARROLL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED…

AT 1248 AM CDT…WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
…AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE…THE TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED.

Tornado Warning for Madison County Cancelled

1249 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

…THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED…

AT 1248 AM CDT…WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA …AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE…THE TORNADO WARNING IS CANCELLED.

Tornado Warning for Madison County…Storms Are East of the County

Storms are east of Madison County and moving AWAY from the county.

Severe T’storm Watch Expanded; Storms North of I-40 Pushing East

(Saturday, July 4, 2009) – The NWS in Memphis has expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#547) to include Carroll and Henry Counties.  This is in addition to Lake, Obion and Weakley Counties already under the watch which continues through 8 PM. 

Shortly before 6 PM CDT, NWS Doppler radar was inticating a band of scattered thunderstorms from near Dresden to Newbern to Dyersburg. The storms are moving east at 40 mph.  The strongest activity was in Dyer County.  Severe thunderstorms are impacting the Jackson Purchase area of Western KY.  West TN residents near the KY state line need to monitor the movement of those storms this evening.

Severe Risk Appears to be Diminishing Some

…Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Until 8 PM for Lake, Obion and Weakley Counties…

From the NWS in Memphis:

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE TIME OF GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 4 PM TO 11 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

Severe Weather Possible Later Today

 

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS NORTH OF LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO HUNTINGDON TENNESSEE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. PEOPLE WITH PLANS TO ATTEND OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

NWS

June 2009: Warm & Dry

MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY
West Tennessee Weather Online Jackson TN
550 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2009

…JUNE 2009: Warm & Dry…

…TEMPERATURE DATA…

The average monthly temperature for June 2009 at McKellar-Sipes Regional Airport was 77.9 degrees or 1.2 degrees above average.  The average high was  88.7 degrees and the average low was 67.1 degrees. The highest temperature recorded was 97 degrees on 23rd. The lowest temperature recorded at the airport was 51 degrees on the 6th.

…PRECIPITATION DATA…

At the airport total rainfall for the month of May was 3.24 inches, 1.78″ below the average.  The most rainfall recorded in a 24 hour period was 0.85″ on the 2nd-3rd.

…MISC. DATA…

The highest wind gust was 49 mph on the 2nd.

…DATA FROM OTHER CLIMATE STATIONS IN JACKSON/MADISON COUNTY…

NORTH JACKSON

Ave. Temperature: 78.9º
Ave. Maximum: 89.6º
Ave. Minimum: 68.1º
Highest Temperature: 97º on 21st, 22nd, and 27th.
Lowest Temperature: 52º on 6th.

Total Precipitation: 2.11″
Greatest 24-Hr. Amount: 0.84″ on the 15th

 
WEST JACKSON – Experiment Station

Ave. Temperature: 78.7º
Ave. Maximum: 88.8º
Ave. Minimum: 68.5º
Highest Temperature: 97º on 22nd.
Lowest Temperature: 53º on 6th.

Total Precipitation: 3.61 inches
Greatest 24-Hr. Amount:   1.00 inch on 10th-11th

SOUTH JACKSON – Bemis

Ave. Temperature:  79.4º
Ave. Maximum: 91.1º
Ave. Minimum: 67.8º
Highest Temperature: 98 º on the 23rd, 26th and 27th
Lowest Temperature: 51º on the 6th

Total Precipitation: 2.53″
Greatest 24-Hr. Amount: 1.02 ” on the 10th

Additional information from South Jackson-Bemis is available at:

 http://monthlyclimate.wordpress.com/

 

 

Eddie Holmes

Meteorologist C.B.M.^TM

www.JacksonWeather.net

Independence Day Holiday Outlook

(Wednesday, July 1, 2009) – Happy first day of July! It has been seasonably warm, but not seasonably humid today. We are under the influence of flow around an upper low over the Great Lakes, unusual for the time of the year, and an upper ridge over the SW US. Considerable low clouds have prevailed today over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Normally Chicago reaches a high of 82 today. At mid-afternoon, Chicago-Ohare Airport was reporting 60º with some intermittent rain.

At 4 PM, West TN temps were comfortably warm for the most part. Readings ranged from 80 at Paris (wow!) to 89 in Memphis. Dew point temperatures (a measure of much moisture is in the air) were around 60º. Winds here in N. Jackson are out of the North at 8-13 mph. Typically, we start July with dew point temperatures around 70º. So, how sweet it is!

As far as the forecast is concerned: it appears that the upper flow will flatten out some over the next few days. That will generally mean a warming to near average values for highs and lows. Humidity values will begin to get sticky starting Saturday. This will be due in part to advancing tropical air heading back north and being led by a warm front that will be pushing through on Saturday. There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms erupt with the front’s passage. So Mother Nature might have her own fireworks to show off. Right now rain chances are at about 30 percent. Wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans, but be mindful of the storm possibilities.

Recall, I mentioned that the upper flow will flatten out. That means that the “steering currents” will be more west to east. This will not give a visiting cold front much opportunity to leave the neighborhood once it arrives. There are indications it will stall out just south of us and rain chances will continue in the forecast Sunday and Monday.

Independence Day – Lo 67º   High 89º 

Sunday – Lo 74º    Hi 84º

 

 

Sunday Storms Announce Heat Relief!

Late evening radar mosaic showing showers and thunderstorms along a cold front.  The front will push into our area on Sunday and will bring with it a slight risk of severe thunderstorms (see details here) and a change to cooler and less humid weather.   Check out the computer (GFS Model) projection of temperatures for the week ahead:

SUN 28| MON 29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04|

72 93| 58 89| 65 90| 63 86| 65 85| 65 85| 66 86|

They call that “sweet”!